We’ve got five people that have already declared their candidacy for the Republican nomination. Will there be more?
Quick history lesson: Tom Perriello pulled off a giant upset victory over Virgil Goode in 2008 in a 50-50 election. Goode’s campaign imploded over the final six weeks and Perriello used a grassroots organization to win.
I had my doubts about Perriello, but he’s pleasantly surprised me with his record so far. It’s way too early to think about the 2010 election cycle, but it looks like we have to take a look at the potential opponents that have declared… so let’s go to a rundown.
Declared Candidates:
- Bradley Rees – From Bedford County, Rees was the first person into the race (as far as I can remember), but his only publicity of note so far has been his conviction on a concealed-weapon charge. His campaign tried to spin that into a “hey, at least he bought the guns legally and cooperated with the police offcer”, but that pretty much killed his chances. Chances of getting the Republican nomination: 0%
- Laurence Verga – From Albemarle County, Verga is a real-estate investor. He moved to the 5th District about five years ago and has never ran for public office. Chances of getting the Republican nomination: 0%
- Kenneth Boyd – Also from Albemarle County, Boyd is a former Chairman of the county’s Board of Supervisors and former school board member. He owns a financial services company. Chances of getting the Republican nomination: 0%
- Feda Morton – From Fluvanna County, Morton is a long-time Republican activist and a biology teacher. Chances of getting the Republican nomination: 0%
- Michael McPadden – Another Albemarle County resident, McPadden just declared his candidacy. He’s an airline pilot and also has never ran for public office before. Chances of getting the Republican nomination: 0%
So there’s the field so far. You may notice that the five candidates have been given a 0% chance of getting the nomination. You might say “But that’s impossible!” You would be wrong, and here’s why.
Undeclared Candidates:
- Robert Hurt – He’s the state Senator from Chatham. He’s very popular in the district. Chances of getting the Republican nomination: 99%
Breakdown: If Robert Hurt decides to run, the game is over for the other five declared candidates. He’s the only potential candidate that would have a chance against Tom Perriello and the Republican party knows it and that’s why they will select the nominee at a convention.
Analysis: If Robert Hurt wants the nomination, Robert Hurt will get the nomination. Our sources say that Robert Hurt will declare his candidacy in the next few months. One of our best sources say that he’s already established the fundamentals for his campaign. The money will start flowing soon after that and Robert Hurt will be Tom Perriello’s opponent in the 2010 election. The 5th District House race can be won by the Republicans without the Charlottesville area if the Southside area is firmly behind their candidate. Hurt has the potential to do that and that makes a Perriello/Hurt matchup quite intriguing. Perriello will have a slight edge with his incumbency but Hurt can easily blow past that and make the race a toss-up in no time.
Heck, I might run. Only kidding. Everyone else seems to want to run. I have other plans for 2010. And it is not politics.
You can’t leave us hanging with that teaser. 😛
Come on. I need to get my life back on track. After the year I have had I need a break. Maybe something in 2011??? Big elections in 2011 Get my drift!!! Just got to talk to the family to see what they think
You might want to put a little more faith in Michael McPadden the word im getting is the Republican party wants someone from Charlottesville to cut into Perriello’s base there. I do agree with you on Hurt if he wants the nomination he will get it.
The grassroots are not going to put another Rhino into the fray. You are going to see someone who has never been in politics take this nomination. We are pissed at the republicans as well as the democrats.
It won’t be easy but the Republican party is going to get shaken up.
What is a RINO ? There seem to be a number of people who claim to be Republicans, some who even are officers at local and higher levels, who do nothing to help republican campaigns. They run for office but then just talk and do nothing. Thy take an oath to support the nominees when they participate in the nomination and then do nothing positive. They should resign their titles if they have any integrity at all. But they don’t so they won’t. They are Republicans In Name Only.
I agree, I can’t see how the good Republicans of the 5th District and the new grass roots revolution against big government will allow a RINO like Hurt to seize the nomination uncontested. It’s going to be a fight to the bitter end but Hurt has to be held responsible for crossing over and voting for the largest tax increase in the history of Virginia.
All of this “RINO” garbage is what dumbfounds me. Nobody outside of the hard-core party fringe cares about these labels that people put on candidates.
I don’t care that Hurt voted for the “largest tax increase in the history of Virginia” anymore. In retrospect, it was what needed to be done. Damned politically unpopular, but hey, he’s survived.
If the Republican party convention is taken over by hardliners and Hurt doesn’t get the nomination, Perriello wins big over any of these five people. Rees has blown away any possible support I’d have for him with his concealed weapons conviction. Morton looks to be a partisan hackette (and she violates my personal two-name rule :D) so she’s out. And who’s the other two guys from LiberalLand? I’ve already forgot their names. Perriello wins with a 57-43 (at least) against any of those five.
I don’t give a damn about the party affiliation of any candidate. I care about what they’re going to do for this area and this country.
Ronald Reagan isn’t going to re-animate and run for any more political offices. It’s time to move on.
Thirteen months to the election and you are already willing to settle for another Republican hack. How sad. you say you don’t know who these other candidates are and yet you toss them aside. Who knew who Perriello was 24 months ago? Nobody. Who besides the people of 19th district knows who Hurt is? Hardly anybody.
I think you are being very premature in your analysis but I could be wrong, only time will tell.
Sheesh. I know who the other candidates are. Also, I may be premature in my analysis, but I’m one of the few that actually has the guts to stick an opinion out there.
If I am right on this breakdown, you owe me a beer or twelve. 😀
I think your analysis is somewhat flawed but not terribly so.
Morton has problems in that she has pretty solid support in Fluvanna but almost nowhere else. Her volunteer campaign team is weak and one of her better advisors has already quit. Her record on the school board has yet to be examined but certainly will be. She has said she will remain working and that will cut into her campaign time so much that she will never get traction beyond her base. Big names in party supporting her but none live in the district. 12 %
McPadden seems to be a very nice guy who has interesting writings but for now has no campaign team at all visible now. Well connected with Charlottesville Tea Party folks but so do others. Strong military and airline pilot background. Never before involved in party so has big uphill battle. Can self fund. 10%
Rees well connected with Danville and Lynchburg tea party groups but no money and his past record of harassing Bob Goodlatte will make him minor player. Very inexperienced campaign team will hurt him more than help him. If he ever raises enough money to qualify still weak. 2%
Verga- nice guy with experienced volunteer manager in Keith Drake, past chair of Albemarle. What seems to be very good business background. His health will worry some and no campaign experience may hurt. Will have money. Drake well connected with Charlottesville tea party and GOP chairmen. 14%
Boyd-has hired solid professional manager. Record on school board and as supervisor not yet examined closely but that will come. Has raised money in the past but will number of candidates from the north hurt him even in his home county. Will work hard and has some good volunteers with him. Will not have hard core right nor Tea party support and visibility outside home area minimal even though he has connections in Martinsville area. Could be sleeper. 17%
Hurt- Has strongest record of successful campaigning but campaign organization unknown. Very likeable personality but does have votes that are better known. Has been able to raisie money in the past. Best name ID because of areas he has represented in the House and Senate cover a number of counties and he is well liked in every one. Well liked by those who served with him in both chambers as strong thinker and genuinely nice person. Solid conservatives in House and Senate will work for his election. 35%
One more possible strong candidate could be in the wings I am told.If they run will change numbers and some would drop so 10% out here for that possibility.
These things are hard to handicap. If one looks back at past conventions in the 5th they have been very destructive to the winning candidates and the local party organizations both in 1996 between Landrith and Ruff and before when Onnico Barker and Linda Arery faced off. Morton and some of her team were a part of the Landrith team and know all the tricks. Boyd’s manager also has convention experience. Tucker Watkins is experienced in running conventions so that could be great help to avoid major problems.
Southside,
I would be honored to buy you a beer in the spring after the convention.
Will teaparty people, everyday folks, be allowed into the convention? My understanding is that conventions are closed, and if many teaparty people, while passionate about politics, are not registered to be at the convention, I believe Tucker Watkins won’t allow them admission.
5th District Vet, thanks for the comment. Very interesting. Who else do you see as a possibility? And are you saying you think Morton’s team could cause a major disruption at the convention?
Chris,
Anyone can come to a GOP convention. All they have to do is attend their local county mass meeting and be elected. Tucker Watkins has nothing to do with the local unit elections. You clearly don’t know Watkins as he has run a number of conventions and never has any complaint been made about his leaving anyone out.
Morton will not be the problem but people who are her strongest supporters like Tim Boyer will be. They were a part, as was Mrs. Morton, of the team who violated rule after rule of constitutional rights of people attending the convention in 1996. But Mrs Morton was not a part of the leadership that planned the violations as the Boyers were. After what was done that day, it is laughable for Boyer to ever say he wants people’s rights protected. I was there when they did everything by voice vote, a violation of the rules. Go back and ask anyone, including Morton, if she wants to see a repeat of that convention.
5th District Vet,
Thanks again for the info. While you’re right about Watkins never having a complaint against him for leaving him out, I remember last year there was a complaint about him bringing people in (allegedly to vote for him, though i make no such accusation) after the deadline had passed. (Shaun Kenney blogged about this IIRC).
There’s a large “Teaparty” contingent that are very unhappy with Tucker, blaming him for Goode’s poor campaign, and they are beginning to grumble about coronations of Hurt. FWIW.
Chris,
Watkins was not running that convention so he didn’t control when people were allowed in, That was George Sterling.
Watkins certainly bears some responsibility for Goode losing and he has said so, but a number of those who follow that script never lifted a finger to assist in any way. They may just be trying to avert attention from themselves. It is interesting to ask them how many times they worked a phonebank, knocked on a door, or donated any money.
As a conservative, In order to get my vote Hurt will need to explain to me why he voted for the ’04 tax increase…I will need to be convinced by him that he is not a “big government republican”….which, IMO is actually worse than a democrat because many are duped into thinking they are getting a conservative when really we are getting another power player in the game of politics….
5thDistrictVet;
I hate to bust your arrogant little bubble, but not only was I not at the ’96 convention, but I did not get involved in that campaign until the convention was over……I don’t even know the details of what you think you are talking about.
Secondly to assert that one’s constitutional rights were denied without a shred of evidence presented is barely short of libel;
If you want to see an instance of rights being denied, you should look into the actions of your hero Tucker Watkins at the Martinsville mass meeting in spring ’08;
He and his little lapdog chairman tried to deny legally qualified delegates their right to vote at the ’08 district convention;
That, sir, would be a violation of the Voting Rights Act, according to one constitutional attorney who wins Supreme Court cases on a regular basis.
You are clearly trying to use a convention thirteen years ago to justify assassinating the character of anyone who does not lick the boots of Watkins, Hurt, and the NRCC.
YOu have already demonstrated that you have no idea what you are talking about in regard to the ’96 convention, and I could take an educated guess at gave you that incorrect info.
Were I you, I would be very careful not to publicly tell untruths about someone’s character about whom you know nothing .
Further, I am glad to know that you do not consider the largest tax increase in Virginia’s history to be a problem, and that you think it “needed to be done”.
Are you aware that the state had a 1 billion dollar budget surplus when he voted for a larger tax increase than Mark Warner even asked for?
Are you aware that it required the votes of 18 House Republicans to pass the tax increase because the Dem’s did not have the votes to do it alone?
Are you aware that Hurt voted for HB 3202, a bill that established UNELECTED bodies of bureaucrats with the power to levy taxes?
That bill was ruled unconstitutional as taxation without representation.
Of course you are aware of all this……you just don’t care.
Are you further aware that your Comrade Tucker has been out publicly blaming Lucy Goode for Virgil’s loss?
What a man!……….blame the girl!…are you aware that this last campaign was the first ever that Lucy did NOT have control of?
You need to choose your heroes more carefully, my dear friend, and don’t let them use you to spread lies about people you don’t even know……let them do their own dirty work.
Southside has never been so well represented or respected in Congress. Periello is smart and works hard for his people. Look what he’s done so far.
He’ll never take a bribe from the Health Care Industry. They’ve spent over a million in the 5th to defeat him. Why? Because they make millions and millions by denying coverage to kids with cancer. Remember, Jesus said to heal the sick, not make a profit off of them. America can pay the bills for medicine and doctors and hospitals if we don’t have to pay the the insurance profiteers.
And we’d have enough money left over for the schools.
The 5th showed their smarts when they elected Periello. Like the song says, “from the Hills of the Piedmont, to the fields of Southside”, we’ll never find a better candidate. He’s a home-boy who’s been around the world, standing up for treating people right. Decent and honest as they come.
However, he does take bribes from Pelosi and other far left liberals, unions, trial lawyers, ‘green industry’,
and yes…I’m betting the healthcare industry, too.