Last Update: Danville City Sheriff’s Race – Update #2
Now it’s getting interesting…
News: The candidates had a debate. Whoo boy. You already know my take on the debate, so I won’t repeat it here.
Mondul picks up the FOP endorsement, quite unsurprisingly. Mondul’s obligatory “photo with lots of people behind the candidate” was filled with law enforcement experience. Childress had lots of family & friends (and Neal Morris) in his. No big shock in the endorsement, but it does show where a sector of people on the job are thinking… and that mean a lot to informed voters.
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Issues: Childress blew himself up at the debate when he said that the Sheriff’s Department has a lot of gang information but the Police Department hasn’t came to look at it. Mondul jumped on that with a “we’re not playing nice in the sandbox” line and made Childress look very petty. Mondul’s idea of getting the Sheriff’s office some field training is being attacked by Childress as trying to turn the department into another law enforcement agency and that’s not correct. Booth continues to press the fact that morale is low in the agency and he can fix that.
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Thoughts: The end-game has already started in this election. Mondul is now the clear front-runner and prohibitive favorite. Childress appears to be going from a “I’m the best guy for the job” strategy to a “I’m better than Mike Mondul.” one. Attacking Mondul in any way possible (including the mischaracterization of Mondul’s initiatives) appears to be the final gameplan of his campaign. Mondul’s campaign is in a “Run the clock out and don’t fumble the ball” mode. I believe Wayne Booth is still sitting at the debate location wondering when he gets to speak. Booth has a degree of support from his fans, but he’s not going to come close to winning this race. Based on what I’ve heard from the voters, I’m adjusting the popular vote percentages to reflect Booth’s small support base.
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Prediction of the popular vote: Mondul 50%, Childress 38%, Booth 12%
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OddsMakers of the candidate winning the election: Mondul 92%, Childress 8%, Booth 0%
Twenty days to go.
And how much is the Mondul camp paying you to say this since it is sooooo inaccurate.
Just in: Poll Results
Mondul 41
Childress 52
Boothe 7
The Mondul campaign pays me nothing.
Unless you can cite a source for your “poll” (and you won’t be able to), your “poll” is horsecrap. If it’s your prediction of the race outcome, label it as such.