Danville City Commonwealth’s Attorney Race – Update #4

Last update: Danville City Commonwealth’s Attorney Race – Update #3

With less than 20 days to go, let’s see what’s going on and talk a little strategy.

News:

• Jim Martin started TV ads with Mike Newman following him ~10 days later. Claudette Robertson is sticking with signs and her moving van/billboard.
• Martin has introduced a new issue into the race with his concept of “vertical prosecution” (having one assistant prosecutor handle a case from start to finish).That makes sense to me and to someone that really has no idea how cases are handled by the CA’s office, I wonder why that’s not the case right now.

Thoughts:

• Newman continues to have the confident attitude of a front-runner, but (unlike the sheriff’s race) there are two other candidates that have a legitimate chance of winning. He can’t afford the “Run the clock out” strategy that is prevailing in the Sheriff’s race, and his campaign should know this.
• Martin is getting out there in public appearances (seen at the Chamber’s Expo) which can only help his campaign.
• Robertson is running a competitive campaign despite being way behind the other two candidates in fundraising.

Strategy:

The end-game strategy in this race. What I’m about to say will probably offend some people and be very controversial but unfortunately, it’s a sad fact of local elections like this. That being said, let’s get this out of the way.

“Whoever wins the black vote will win the Commonwealth’s Attorney election”

The City of Danville usually votes in demographic blocs. Which candidate can control those blocs? Let’s break it down.

• Old people – They’ve loved Bill Fuller for 40 years, so Newman has the inside edge to get these votes. Martin could make some headway into this group if he plays the past experience card. Robertson has to find a way to appeal to this group over the other two candidates. These voters are highly prized because they go to the polls and vote every election.
• Middle-aged people – Inertia may lead them to try and keep a Bill Fuller-type (Newman) in the office, but Martin & Robertson could easily swing this bloc to their side of the scoreboard by pushing hard in the last weeks. This bloc of voters usually go to the polls, but not as much as the older demographic.
• Young people – Robertson should have a slight inside track with this group with Newman a close second. Martin doesn’t seem to have the appeal to the first-time voters, but that’s not too big of a loss because this group of voters vote less often.

That leads us to what I said earlier. What candidate can carry the traditionally black precincts? There’s no easy way to say this (yet again), but here we go.

“Thelbert Childress can be a kingmaker in this race.”

Childress is very popular in the traditionally black precincts as can be seen by the coverage of yard signs. If he endorses (on or off the record) one of the three candidates, his voters will respect his decision and throw their support behind his choice. If Childress remains silent (verbally and/or through his actions), any of the three candidates can gain a giant advantage getting out there and talking to the voters. The personal approach will be the key in controlling the historically black vote and the election.

As of now, it appears that Newman has been courting the favor of Childress with each of them appearing at each other’s churches. That’s big.

>>>>>

Prediction of the popular vote: Newman’s strategy gets him a predicted lead in this update. Newman 40%, Robertson 30%, Martin 30%

OddsMakers of the candidate winning the election: There’s a big change in this OddsMakers because of Newman’s strategy. Robertson & Martin have to beat Newman with his own playbook.  Newman 50%, Robertson 25%, Martin 25%

>>>>>

Newman makes a strong move but can easily be caught in the last 20 days. Let’s see what happens.