Danville City Council Race – Update #5

(Last update – Danville City Council Race – Update #4)

The candidate forums are now finished, and it’s time to see what the five candidates for the four Danville City Council seats have to do to win.

14 days to go before Election Day, and the City Council race is slowly heating up. Let’s start off by seeing what the candidates have done in the past 16 days since our last update.

Incumbents:

• Adam Tomer – Tomer has started advertising with yard signs. Although he missed the forum at the American Legion due to a prior commitment, that absence didn’t cost him very much. In the last forum, Tomer made a strong move by accentuating what he’s done in his first term on City Council.
• Gary Miller – Miller has been an interesting combination of soft-spoken and well-spoken in the forums. He’s pushed his knowledge of the hospital & the medical system, which is a hot topic with lots of voters.

Challengers:

• Alonzo Jones – Jones has performed as expected in the forums. He’s keeping his clean-cut image and his advertising campaign remains highly visible.
• John Gilstrap – Gilstrap has been the most visible challenger at community events and performed well at the forums. I sense he’s becoming more accessible to people which greatly helps his campaign.
• Thomas Motley – Motley rebounded from a mixed performance at the Chamber of Commerce’s forum to perform well at the Danville Ministerial Alliance’s one.

Now let’s take a look at what the candidates need to do over the final 14 days to win a seat on City Council…

• Adam Tomer – Tomer needs to continue to get his message out about his first term on City Council. His calling out on the Coleman Marketplace extra money is something that voters can latch on to. Tomer should be very safe when the results come in.
• Gary Miller – Miller is also relatively safe, but he could use some campaigning in the traditionally black communities to secure any additional votes.
• Alonzo Jones – With a strong advertising campaign, Jones simply needs to avoid self-destructing. Door-to-door campaigning in north Danville wouldn’t hurt his campaign a bit.
• John Gilstrap – Gilstrap also has a strong advertising campaign in motion. If he continues to be seen everywhere people goes with a smiling face, he’s in good shape.
• Thomas Motley – There’s no easy way to put it nicely, so I’ll just say it. Without votes from the traditionally white precincts, he’s got no chance. Motley needs to promote himself & his campaign heavily in the final two weeks and tone down his main focus on utility rates. I’m wondering if it’s too late for a last-minute push because of a lack of advertising so far?

Oddsmakers time! Chances of winning the election…

• Adam Tomer – 99%
• Gary Miller – 97%
• Alonzo Jones – 93%
• John Gilstrap – 91%
• Thomas Motley – 20%

Recap: The wild-card in this race will be the voter turnout. I just don’t feel that Danville residents are very excited with this relatively low-key race and that could lead to a very low turnout percentage. If that happens, the results could be slightly more unpredictable. Let’s see how the final 14 days go.