Let’s get back into politics and see what’s been going on in the race for the Republican nomination for the 5th District House of Representatives fall election. We’ve done a few Food Chain!s before, but this is SC’s first straight-up update.
Starting at the bottom of our last Food Chain and working up, we’ll go over each candidate’s last five weeks of campaigning and related activities. Let’s go to the board!
- Jim McKelvey – McKelvey has became one of the tea party’s favorite candidates and now he’s got to convince the other likely voters that he’s the man to vote for. He’s got the money to make it to June 8th. In the past five weeks, McKelvey comes out UP.
- Feda Morton – Most people (including me) believed that Feda Morton’s campaign was dead in the water. Somehow, she’s continued a viable campaign despite a severe lack of money. Morton’s picked up endorsements from numerous sources. In the past five weeks, Morton comes out UP.
- Ron Ferrin – Ferrin hasn’t been heard from lately and time’s running out. In the past five weeks, Ferrin comes out DOWN.
- Laurence Verga – Verga started with a lot of potential but it seems like it’s falling apart for his campaign. That’s the wrong momentum at this stage of the game. In the past five weeks, Verga comes out DOWN.
- Ken Boyd – Around the Southside, Boyd’s been missing in action lately. In the past five weeks, Boyd comes out DOWN.
- Robert Hurt – Hurt’s got top-shelf strategists working for him, but I’m starting to wonder what the hell they’re thinking. It seems that the strategy is to continue to let Hurt take shots and not playing any defense. He’s not going to sit on the money that he has (is he?) but with the clock running out, when is he going to use it? In the past five weeks, Hurt comes out SLIGHTLY DOWN.
- Mike McPadden – McPadden seems to be holding steady despite starting to get an increasing number of attacks. He seems to have the money to make it to the finish line, so let’s see how he uses it. In the past five weeks, McPadden comes out EVEN.
Thoughts:
- A relatively quiet five weeks is yet another bizarre twist in this bizarre race. I find it hard to believe that any candidate is going to leave money on the table so I’m getting ready for advertising blitzes.
- The candidates that are lacking in money will get steamrolled during this predicted ad blitz.
- If somebody could run a real poll using real statistically valid methods, we’d finally be able to get some sense of order on the lower two-thirds of the field. It’s clear that Robert Hurt & Mike McPadden have a relatively strong amount of support, but Feda Morton & Jim McKelvey are likely starting to surge to some extent. A real poll could tell how the candidates are trending. Unfortunately, I’m betting that there won’t be a poll like this done before the primary.
- Straw polls are friggin’ useless, people. All they show is how many supporters that a specific candidate brought to one event. Faked polls are even more useless, because they’re going to knock down credibility.
- Who’s going to vote in the primary on June 8th? The tea party groups seem to think that they will control the election, but that’s not going to be the case if the impending ad blitz is effective. If the candidates are smart, they’ll focus their word of the people that are Republicans but don’t participate in the tea party movement. From what I’ve seen in the “grassroots” organizations, the challengers are very unlikely to change their mind from their choice that they have right now.
- We’ve also got to think of the crossover subterfuge vote potential because this primary election is open to all voters. With so many candidates in the race, this election could very well be won with 30% of the vote. If an organized Democratic effort gets out and votes for a candidate near the bottom of the Food Chain, hilarity could definitely ensue with the results.
Recap: In my objective opinion, there seems to be three tiers of candidates right now. Hurt & McPadden are on top, Morton & McKelvey are the middle tier and Verga, Boyd & Ferrin are trailing. “Money changes everything”, and that saying is probably going to come true when the polls close on June 8th.
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I do believe I have to concur with the majority of your assessment, however, you have a serious flaw in your comments about the Tea Party. I do speak with some experience here. The Tea Party groups do NOT believe we will control the election. Quite the contrary. From the beginning the Tea Parties across VA5 have been as frustrated as every other right-of-center voter. From the beginning we have been fractured. McPadden, Verga, Mckelvey, and yes, mostly on the Southside, Hurt are all sipping from the Tea Party pot. Even Feda is getting a measurable taste in some circles. I agree that the Mc’s are probably the Tea Party front runners, but who does that benefit the most? So, don’t accuse us of false hope of gaining control of anything at this point, or in the primary. I wish it were so. But, alas, the inflated ego’s and fantasy political ambitions of a few are going to play right into the hands of the very ones the rail against on the stump.
Hey, Question.
If the turnout is 20% as you predict – who do you think that favors?
Generally, primary voters are those that tend to be very involved, basically understand te issues and have strong reasons for which candidate they support. Right?
Which candidate(s)/issues do you see energy and excitement for or against?
Bruce this is the very best post you have ever done. I am a Mike McPadden supporter but i do think McKelvey has moved ahead of the rest of the field in the past 3 weeks.Im not sure we shouldn’t all get behind one candidate so we can get a true conservative that will have the support of the tea party group. Bruce you did a great job and you were VERY fair thanks.
Great review, SSC. I agree with your assessment of almost all of the candidates(Can Ferrin really go down?). I don’t know how relevant it is, but I too am concerned about crossover voters in such a wide field. I know that nobody’s counting, but what do you think the percentage of voters will be non-GOP?
I am not even sure that many dems even know we are having a republican primary – – Heck, most republicans do not even know it.
True, but for every involved and active republican there is most likely an involved and active democrat. I’ve never voted in a democrat primary, but I’m typically aware of them. Perhaps with the stakes so high my counterpart is interested in selecting Perriello’s opponent? I dunno sounds a bit conspiracy theory-like, but I’m pretty sure it happens. Just tossing ideas around…
Now I’m getting shivers thinking about my democrat mirror image!
As far as Democrat cross over goes, its all about incentives. Do Democrats think Perriello is a strong candidate? Probably. He has over a million dollars cash-on-hand. Does this mean that they have an incentive to monkey around in the primary? Probably not. The Democrats are mostly concentrated in Charlottesville, mainly UVa. The University is out on break as of the end of this week. It would be more productive to talk about policy than speculating on marginal acts that may or may not happen.
In any event, the best review I have seen so far online.
A piece on Ken Boyd from a really liberal “independent” weekly newspaper:
http://www.c-ville.com/index.php?cat=121304062461064&ShowArticle_ID=11801005103954248
It’s quite good. Seems like he’s shaking things up in Albemarle.
I mention this because you seem to think he’s irrelevant, but I wouldn’t count him out.
YodrAn Nice article on Boyd- I thought Cville hated republicans? I think Southside Central is honestly Southside centric. Up in the northern part most people have barely heard of Sen Hurt. Boyd needs more money but his name and previous service is worth more then all of Verga’s self financing.
a Democrat crossover vote? it happens, but the Dems think Perriello is sitting pretty with his union money & Obama/Pelosi backing, so they might not get involved.
also, there are alot of candidates & they would have to really have a concentrated effort to benefit one candidate over the other.
Kelley have you seen the poll at fifth district watchdog ? You might want to go vote for Hurt he isn’t doing very well.
Will White: is that poll as scientific as the one run at the convention?
also, bruce, you ask if someone could run a real poll (say from an independent reputable polling firm). Polls of this kind are expensive, so i’ve always heard.
wonder how much a poll from a firm like Rasmussen (for example) would cost? does anyone know?
I would almost be willing to bet that Hurt would come in 3rd or 4th in a ‘real’ poll.
Behind McPadden, McKelevey, and possibly even Boyd or Morton.
Reply: You’d be willing to lose then. Objectively, there’s no way in hell that Hurt is any lower than 2nd.
Good analysis. I’m with you in wondering why Hurt hasn’t spent any money yet. It may cost him if he isn’t careful. I’ve also taken a look at my blog today of some of Hurt’s recent campaign moves and what it may tell us about his campaign against Perriello: http://notandysere.blogspot.com/2010/05/hurt-reveals-general-election-strategy.html
Very compelling Bruce, great job! We will be keeping a close eye on it.
PD, Hurt is doing well in Pittsylvania, Halifax and Mecklenburg other than those counties he is weak.If Hurt wins the three counties i mention by a landslide he still won’t win the primary.Kelley i would like to see a poll from someone else also maybe it will happen.Bruce if the poll is held in Hurts area he may come in second if not i would bet he would be 3rd or 4th in the whole 5th district at best.
will: Hurt is doing well in the counties that he represents in the Senate–most especially the counties he represented in the House. that is to be expected.
frank ruff & tommy wright have worked hard for Robert Hurt in their respective districts which is also out here in the hinterland.
i have no idea what is happening in the c-ville/albemarle/buckingham areas.
you would think a news organization/college would run a poll because this is impt: whoever wins will be involved in one of the top 3 races in the country.
I know lots of republicans in Halifax County (not all ‘tea party’ folks either) that are not voting for Hurt in the Primary.
He will not win Halifax, and Mecklenburg by a landslide, in my opinion.
If he cannot bring lots of votes out of the North end – – he is in big touble.
On the other hand – The Mc’s and Boyd are strong up North an weaker down here – – but if they do really well up north and marginally well down here…they have a really chance of winning the primary.
The North has the population centers – – Stronger support up there for the Mc’s and Boyd really spell could trouble for Hurt.
The more I think about it, the more I think Hurt and his high dollar establishment republican strategists are betting on doing well in the southern part of the district, and hoping the North splits the votes among the 4 candidates that are from up there, enough for him to squeak (and it will be a squeak) out a victory. May work and may not – – we will see.
It concerns me though that he seems to be ‘mailing it in’ – – Whomever wins, this is certain, they MUST be an aggressive candidate running against Perriello. We have seen some of the other candidates demonstrate passion and aggression…we have not seen much of those those(essentially none) from Hurt.
PD I have been a McPadden supporter from the very start but we really need to ALL get behind a true conservative because i think it is Hurt’s plan for everyone to be divided so like you said he can squeak by. If we could get enough people together we could get behind someone and give them enough votes to win.Like i said im a McPadden supporter but i would vote for another candidate if we could ALL get behind a strong candidate.
Where is update number 2??? We’re ready and waiting!
yup, I’m ready for another update, too.
did anyone go to the various candidate booths at the Danville Festival yesterday? All the candidates were in Chase City at the “debate” that lasted til about 4 pm.
I was at the ‘debate’, more like a forum on Saturday. Too long!
I went there looking to be convinced at the last minute as to which one deserved my vote…not that mine is any more important than anyone else’s…just sayin’ that I was my intent as I drove to Chase City.
Here are my observations after the 3 forums I have witnessed, brief conversations with a couple of the candidates, and perusal of all their websites and paraphernalia, and conversations with other conservatives. .
Boyd is looking much better. I think the forums have helped him in presentation. Seems to have real experience in getting this done while playing the lone wolf of conservatism and not giving in on principles. I could certainly vote for him in the primary.
Morton is still, IMO…too reliant on notes and, to me anyway just not ready for the ‘big time’. Could not vote for her in the primary.
Ferrin, still the jokester that is not very funny. I cannot take him serious. Speaks for itself…he has no chance of getting my vote in the primary.
Mckelvey, still angry. We all are. But he comes across as too angry and emotional, in my opinion. I like many of his opinions…I just think the liberals will make him look like an angry rich white man….he plays into their stereotype they love to hype. Will not be voting for him in the primary.
McPadden is level headed. Intelligent. Great speaker, and is still constantly referring to the constitution, and the powers it gives and limits government when asked just about any question. I like that. Alot. He just might get my vote in the primary.
Verga is arrogant. Obnoxious. Thinks he knows it all, and snipes at others too much. I have never liked him, and have been sure from the beginning that he was not getting my vote.
Hurt is the old school republican. Says the right things. Has done predominately the right thing with his votes in the house of delegates, but there are a couple of votes that bother me. Of course one is the tax increase, another was the giving of unelected boards taxation power. He says that the tax increase was “the hardest and most difficult vote I ever made”…it is a shame that he did not get what he identities as the most important and difficult vote his life – correct. I cannot vote for him in the primary, as he represents, to me, for better or worse, the old school republican party that is part of the problem in Washington.
All that being said. Getting rid of Perriello is the real goal. Primary’s are good things.. .they allow the rank and file to choose the candidate they think best to run in the general election. They are supposed to be divisive. They are supposed to send messages to the eventual candidate. I hope that Hurt, the MC’s, and Boyd (the ones that I think have a chance) are listening. Whichever one gets it…will have my support against Perriello….but I hope they get the messages sent by the voters.
We are tired of politics as usual in DC. There must be some changes. Republicans must change and return to constitutional and conservative roots.
In the primary; It will be McPadden or Boyd for me. Still not sure which.
tarheel: I agree wholeheartedly with your opinion of McKelvey. He not only looked angry–he looked very unhappy to be there. And to local people, that translates into “I have better things to do than to be here in your podunk town”.
about McPadden: I was alarmed that he went on about what was & was not Constitutional. My distant memory of con law in law school makes me question some of his comments (& Feda’s). Just because McP is speaking to what we want to hear, he is not necessarily correct on his constitutional claims. Perriello will eviserate him.
and finally, I was not happy about the response from McK, Verga, McP & Feda when asked “would you support the nominee no matter who it is?” Feda reluctantly said yes. The others trotted out a long laundry list of reqmts that the nominee must have before they would support him/her.
But–Boyd, Ferrin & Hurt gave an impassioned answer about how imperiled our country is today & how Perriello has contributed to our horrible situation. Hurt said it was the most impt election of his lifetime. He said he would immediately lend every bit of support & influence he had to the Republican nominee.
and tarheel: I really like Boyd, too. He would be my #2 choice behind Hurt.
between the 2 however, Hurt is younger & that matters in the Albemarle “youth” market. And I think Hurt works a crowd much better. and that matters in all campaign situations. So from a campaign standpoint, I think Hurt does better.
McPadden said that he would support the nominee. That is enough for me.
However, if Hurt gets it McPadden will likely be about as excited about Hurt, as I will be though. But again, even though he is the in the middle of the pack as far as my primary preference…he is much better than Perriello!
MCkelvey will end up (reluctantly) supporting Boyd or McPadden I think… anyone else that gets it will get only nominal support from him, except Hurt…in which case he runs as an Independent and Perriello coasts….that is another reason I cannot support Hurt in the primary…the others will not get behind him fully (except Ferrin – but who cares he is merely an attention addict, IMO), and even worse some of the others might even run and take votes from him as an Indy.
I would like to see them asked in a debate (forum/whatever) “if you were not in this race -which of the other six would you be supporting and why?” I think a multiplicity of insights could be gained by the way they answer that question. Shame I did not think of it until after the forum the other day or I would have asked it.
The problem with your “young vote” plug for Hurt…is that young people do not vote in primaries (traditionally anyway).
Im glad that McPadden and McKelvey said they would wait and see who wins the primary before just doing the go along to get along thing that has killed the Republican party in the past few years it shows me they are able to stand up for what they believe in.If anyone at the debate looked like they didn’t want to be there it was Hurt as soon as it was over he jumped in a new Tahoe with his driver and left while the other candidates stood out front and talked to everyone.I want a candidate with a backbone not a jellyfish like Hurt that will say/do anything depending on who is around.Hurt said in the debate he wanted to lower taxes well why in the hell did he vote to raise taxes then.Hurt complained about the leaders we send to DC but to me he seems par to the course.
I’m like you Tarheel. I’m 99% sure I’ll be voting for Boyd or McPadden in the primary. I’ll support whoever wins the primary though.
Boyd’s gotten it done. He’s a proven fighter who stands his ground in the face of pressure. I think he’d be a good match against Perriello.
McPadden seems to work hard. He definitely knows his stuff, and can explain why he believes what he does. He’d do awesome in a debate against Perriello.
And yes, Ferrin is an attention “addict” (we call them something a little harsher in my generation, but “addict” will suffice).
Will: I was standing at the door to the RELee Center on Saturday shaking hands. Did I shake yours?
Sen Hurt had at least one more event on Saturday that he needed to attend. The forum ran OT, so he needed to make a quick getaway. Even so, I left before he did & I talked to a couple of people on my way out.
Many campaign stops & shaking the most hands equals the most votes. On his way in to the event, he spoke with Chas Duckworth & the ladies from the Meck Farm Bureau group. I saw him speak to everyone in his line of sight.
McPadden made some misstatements about the Federal Constitution. I think it was about earmarks or it could have been about Federalism. So did Feda. Before they face Perriello, they will need to review case law. Its an arduous task by anyone’s reckoning.
Ahh, some like minds here. I will be voting for McPadden, but for what it’s worth Boyd is my second choice.
I think Boyd will be quite strong in Albemarle. As for the younger vote going for Hurt over Boyd, it may be so, but I agree with Tarheel, the primary vote will be dominated by older folks, in Albermarle and elsewhere…
yes, primary vote will be dominated by the die-hard, always-vote-even-in-rain,sleet,ice voters.
but I think in the general election, we want to run a young person against Perriello. Voter demographics are showing that the young candidates are appealing.
Kelley were you sitting with Tucker Watkins when he said the prayer ?
yes, Will, I was. It was the first time I had met Tucker.
He made only one 5th CD Primary comment to me (because we talked about people we knew in Halifax & beyond) & that was the polling percentage one specific candidate would take on Primary Day. Because I’m not sure I agree with him, I’ll keep that opinion to myself until after 6/8.
bruce: you’ve got a zillion comments on this topic! we love this topic! put up another post. (please)
Hi Kelly, All other things being equal, you are probably right, a younger person will probably do better, but I think this is probably more a factor for Democrats then Republicans. Sadly, the younger folks tend to gravitate to the Democrat side…
For me, until you mentioned it, I never even though of Boyd as “old”, and Hurt as “young”…
Kelley please I have known all along you were indebted to Tucker and after seeing you sitting with him with the two of you wispering together im sure of it.I sat to your left right behind you.
stephen: i am “old” myself–50. And I would have not thought of the old v. young issue until so many young people, Republicans & Dems alike, told me that they thought John McCain was too old. I think that may have hurt McCain too
sorry I didn’t meet you Will. It would be great to put a face with a name.
I agree Kelley. I hope if Hurt doesn’t win the primary you will get behind the candidate the way you are behind Hurt. I do now understand why you are so behind Hurt.Tucker’s in crowd are all behind Hurt this may be Hurt’s downfall ask Virgil Goode how it worked.
I posted a story from one of Charlottesville’s indy weekly newspapers about Boyd above. Here’s another CVille indy running a story on Feda:
http://www.readthehook.com/blog/index.php/2010/05/17/no-kiddin-family-values-candidate-lost-custody-of-children/
And that’s not such a positive piece. 5th watchdog blog will have more, most likely.
I’ve decided all the candidates have become are anything but conservative. Just tell me what they are going to do to help their constituents. Not raise taxes!!! WOW!!! Say what you want to but I’d like to ask what they are going to do about all my friends and family losing their jobs in Martinsville. The great college institute of Martinsville just gave a druggie a scolarship of $2000.00 for every semester or quarter (what ever they have)and my family and friends were let go of their jobs just this past month after working for 30 years. Also in Franklin County Obama gave money to Head Start for new teachers, teachers aides, bus drivers and bus drivers aides. They only have 138 students. So figure out the math. That is 3 students to every teacher. They just raised my taxes to pay to keep teachers in Franklin County. Not only am I paying for a druggie to go to school and paying for babysitters for Head Start but now they raise my taxes to make sure four year olds can continue to go to school and I provide 3 hot meals a day while their parents are at home watching their big screen TVs and taking their drugs. So, what does McKelvey who lives in Franklin Conty believes should happen here. Please stop this nonsense about who is the most conservative. We need to get out the word about what is going on in our district. Not something someone voted for 6 years ago. I want to know what their idea would be to help my family and friends. Teapartiers are suppose to be helping their friends and neighbors not spewing hatred against other candidates. Just please join me in helpin our community. If their is anything I can do to help you I will. But I am not pushing one candidate over another because he knows the constitution. I want someone who feels my pain. That is the one I will support!!!!!!!!! Thanks everyone for listening. I just got the news this week about 3 of my family members. The pain is still new.
Donna you have a good point. Im just tired of voting for the lesser of two evils. Hurt has shown to me atleast that he can be easily convinced to go along to get along which im sick of. We need a candidate with a backbone.I have been a McPadden supporter from the start but I would not have any problem voting for McKelvey,Boyd, or Feda if they were to win the primary.Verga and Ferrin don’t have any chance of winning the primary and I hope that if Hurt wins the primary Jeff Clark stays in if so he has my vote.
will: i will support the winner of this Republican primary because I believe Perriello to be a Pelosi/Obama/Rahm/Soros enabler. Contrary to Verga, McPadden & McKelvey, I will not apply a litmus test to the nominee because defeating Perriello is absolutely critical to the health of this district & to our country.
Kelley im glad to see candidates with a backbone.Im glad to see that you will support the winner of the primary because the poll over at Virginia’s fifth watchdog is done and Hurt sure didn’t do very well.Maybe it is good that you are open to voting for another candidate.
how could anyone question whether I would vote for the Republican nominee against Perriello?
I hope that no one supporting any of the other candidates would do less.
Kelley, Hurt is the ONLY candidate that would make this a three way race with either Clark or Goode running also. Hurt won’t gain much traction if Virgil jumps in and Clark could get enough votes to spoil it for Hurt. Im sure the Lynchburg and Danville Tea party crowds would endorse Clark/Goode over Hurt anyway.
will, jeff clark is already running before he knows who the Republican nominee is. so his campaign is not about Hurt.
wasn’t it at a meeting with some TEA party members that Perriello said Congress would keep on stealing if not stopped? I wouldn’t think TEA party members would endorse a 3d party candidate that might guarantee a Perriello re-election.
anywho: everyone go to Blue Virginia & see the latest articles on Feda & McK.
Kelley is it true that Hurt paid a firm to dig up dirt on poor Feda is it because she beat him at the convention ?
good grief Will.
i have no idea if that is true.
Since McK has the most money, maybe he is doing something like that. I just don’t know.
It is being looked into now we will soon see who it was.
I am betting on Tucker Watkins and, I am very confident that I would not lose money either!
I had a chance to speak with McKelvey at the Lynchburg Tea Party in April. I was impressed with his ideas and also his pledge to limit his time in office. I was also impressed by the fact that he would NOT take a salary or benefits. He also has some other ideas on his staff that I was impressed with, ie, using retired volunteers that would work for free also. In fact, I am retired and would consider sacrificing some of my retirement to serve with him if he’s elected.
He also has a good business head on his shoulders even if he didn’t graduate from College which I didn’t do either. I don’t consider a college education to be a requirement for this seat. In fact, I’d say it would be good NOT to have some educated idiot lawyer elected…..AGAIN! Maybe a “common” man can use some “common” sense for a change.
To me Hurt is just more of the SOS that we DON’T need! If he is elected it will just be business as usual by another career politician.
McPadden has some baggage that I don’t care for. If he’s a commercial airline pilot, that means he’s a union member which is a huge negative for me. Many of the financial problems we face today are the result of government union contracts. There was a time when unions were necessary but that was a long time ago. They are more of the problem now than the solution.
Anywhoot, I’m with the rest and will support the nominee regardless but I do think that Jim McKelvey is the guy we need in Washington.
ANYONE EXCEPT TOMIBOI PERRIELLO AGAIN!
I do not think that Jeff Clark hurts Boyd, McPadden or McKelvey as much as he would Robert Hurt….pun certainly intended.
Hurt has the most money…yet he still cannot convince the rank and file conservative to pull the lever for him. That sure aint sayin’ much. If he wins the nod…he will do so with 50-60% of grassroots conservatives voting for someone else. For the presumptive favorite, again that aint sayin’ much.
You say the same is true for the others, and you would right…except the conventional wisdom has told us all along that only Hurt has a chance….even this site declared all others ‘clown car’ candidates with no hope….Hurt has the most money…Hurt is the establishment guy…Hurt has great radio spots….and yet…not sealed the deal.
I am predicting (based on nothing really, other than my own opinion formed by paying attention) that Virgil Goode will endorse Boyd or more likely one the MC’s in the next couple of weeks. (Maybe a straight up endorsement…but perhaps it will come in the form of a ‘non endorsement endorsement’)….and that will seal the deal for that one to win the nomination. The other two will come in slightly behind the winner…and Hurt will end fourth, just ahead of Verga, Morton, and Ferrin.
McPadden had to join the union because Northwest Airlines is based in a state that DOES NOT HAVE right to work laws…in other words…if he wanted to work he had to join. He supports (and said so at the forum) making right to work laws national so no one will ever be forced to join a union as he was.
From what I am reading, I think McPadden may be the guy to beat Tom Periello. On top of everything else, there are more McPadden signs throughout the entire district where Hurt and McKelvey signs are in little pockets. Boyd, Verga and Ferrin signs are non-existent, and after the article at readthehook.com about Feda, her campaign is finished. I am now definitely leaning towards Mike McPadden.
tarheeL: McK has the most money because he loaned it to his campaign. He does not have the most money from donations–Hurt does.
how does anyone know at this point who has “sealed the deal” or not.
I really wish a real polling firm would run a poll–22 days seems like such a long time to wait for real news.
I agree, I would like to see a scientific poll released as well!
Perhaps Hurt could release the one that I was told by a very, very reliable source that he had done recently….but the results were NOT at all favorable to him so I am not expecting it anytime soon.
I will bet that Reality is dead wrong, First that Tucker Watkins had anything to do with this and secondly that Hurt’s supposed poll was anything but good news for him. Reality is not reality.
From another blog
Tim Boyer Says:
May 10th, 2010 at 2:52 pm
OK, Chris;
You’re right, I did misinterpret your remark to be insinuating negatively on Virgil; I apologize;
But reading your remark, it is VERY easy to get that impression!
George, why don’t you substantiate your comparison of Feda to Hillary?
and I just love how in your first comment you feign ignorance, and follow that up with two comments that show a pre-prepared agenda;
Kurt: “For me as a TRUE family values voter, Unlike those I’ve encountered, online and in person, I can not and will not support her candidacy in this race, now or after June 8th”.
Are you saying that you would support Perriello over Feda?
If so, I think that says it all about what you do not know about Feda that you think you do know. Are you aware that her first divorce was before she was saved and barely out of college? Or that the second divorce was precipitated by a cheating hubby who left her, not the other way around? If not, then you did not do your research; If so, you are ignoring the facts purposely, which begs the question, why?
Tell us who you support for Congress, Kurt.
What if I told you that a McPadden supporter who is not even in this area of the state called a friend of mine here in the district and tried to tell her more junk about Feda, saying much the same thing you have said in this post?
Is that merely coincidence, or is this coordinated effort by McPadden?
There are very few coincidences in politics, and this looks to me to be no exception to the rule.
Will,
You have to know Jeff Clark is a joke. He can’t even get a majority of the Danville Tea Party which he is a member of. Hurt did in the poll they ran internally. Goode will not be running. Let’s be honest. Goode ran his own campaign last time just like he always has. He lost it. No one else. He had Phil Cox as his consultant but would not listen to him nor anyone else.
not mcpadden:
don’t get me started on the Boyers.
Kelley it very funny to me you like/dislike the same people that Tucker Watkins does/doesn’t like you sit with him at the debate but you claim not to know him. Yeah right.
I wonder how the Boyer family feels now that Morton has had her court documents exposed by The Hook?
will: I met Tucker Watkins for the 1st time Saturday, 5/15/2010.
I bet Tucker Watkins likes alot of the same people I do.
Kelley, can you explain yourself? You have questioned Mike McPadden’s knowledge of our Constitution before, now in this thread you state he is wrong but avoided the details. Finally you mention earmarks and Mike being wrong on them, again with no further details. Can you explain your comments/concerns in a proper context that would satisfy or judge who is correct, you or Mike McPadden? For I know that Mike McPadden does understands the U.S. Constitution while you probably learned case-law. There is a difference: Do you know Joe Story? Have you read his work? It was just a few generations ago that every Lawyer would seek advice from Joe Story’s letters, articles, and books. Now most Lawyers today don’t even know who Joe Story was and how he help build our judicial system. Oh you can google Joe Story and thankfully learn about his patriotism to our Country.
So Kelley, where is Mike McPadden possibly mistaken?
notwillwhite I bet if Hurt wins the primary Clark with a little help from me and a few more people he can get enough votes to spoil the show for Hurt.If ANY of the other candidates except Hurt wins the primary I will work hard to get them elected but I won’t do ANYTHING to help Hurt.The Hurt people should realize Hurt is the only candidate that won’t have the support of the grass roots volunteers and WILL make it a three way race.
about the Constitutional expertise of any of the candidates:
are earmarks unconstitutional? i am looking hard to find where they are not. From a populism point of view, perhaps we wish otherwise.
cardinal crossing: both Feda & McP made Constitutional misstatements. As I said, I don’t remember who said what on which issue (earmarks or federalism). I could go back & review the tape. (Gawd, that would be boring).
McP & Feda & McK all spoke to the Constitution as to how we wish it would be interpreted. But sometimes case law doesn’t run in our favor.
my point on all of these candidates who claim expertise on the Constitution: they will have to have all their knowledge of court decisions–both concurring & dissents, AG opinions, amicus briefs–all of this info at the ready to debate Perriello.
but cardinal crossing, maybe I am wrong. My law degree is old indeed.
That’s the spirit, Will White!
GooOOOOOOooo Perriello! Two. More. Years! Two. More. Years! Two. More. Years!
Hooray!
RH’s poll results on his website. roberthurtforcongress.com
YodraN what would you say WHEN Hurt went to congress and voted for ANOTHER tax increase or to give same-sex couples the same rights as domestic partners have AGAIN if he were elected ? If we are going to have a Liberal in office I would just as soon they have a big D beside their name not a R.
Cardinal Crossing, I don’t agree with Kelley often, but she’s absolutely right about this. At the last debate, McPadden said (paraphrasing, but the audio is online) that the legislature controls what the Courts can and cannot do. He said that by passing a majority vote, they (Congress) can tell the Supreme Court not to hear anymore (abortion) cases.
That is just so absurdly false, it’s laughable to call McPadden a constitutional conservative. First, logically, if we have a three, coequal branches of government (ie, a series of checks and balances,) then Congress can’t tell the Courts what they can and cannot rule on. Secondly, anyone who knows anything about the constitution, knows Marbury v. Madison. McPadden’s explanation on abortion really shows he has no idea what he’s talking about.
Most likely it was Feda that made incorrect comments about the U.S. Constitution. Feda doesn’t have a true grasp of the original meaning of our Constitution, Mike McPadden does. As for earmarks, I don’t recall there ever being a ruling on today’s “earmarks”. Joe Story wrote about promoting the general welfare but Lawyers today don’t want to go there, case law is oh so much better… (TIC)! Actually that is exactly the problem with today’s Lawyers/Politicians, they like case law over principled Constitutional law. After the Kelo case there is no Settled Law in this Country and the BAR loves it! We have Supreme Court Justices that even look at International Law to follow. Joe Story is turning in his grave and Thomas Jefferson is saying, see I warned you all!
BTW Kelley, I think you give TP way to much credit. Was it not TP that said it was up to the Courts to decide what is Constitutional? Hmm, I thought the Congress should look at our Constitution and refer to it when deciding if a new bill should be made into law. TP also mentioned handcuffs, which I’m sure we all can agree, many in Congress today deserves wearing.
WW, First, you can pretend to know how Hurt would vote, but you don’t know for sure. Second, you would throw the baby out with the bathwater over one or two votes? That’s stupid. Hurt would vote better than Perriello on 99% of issues. Third, you would give Pelosi another vote for Speaker? That’s a ballsy statement to make as a “conservative.”
YodraN you are right noboby knows how a candidate might vote in the future but we all know how Hurt has voted in the past which is a good bet that he will continue to vote the same way in the future.
Will,
You are as much of a loser as Clark is. He can’t even get the Danville Tea Party which je is a long time ember of to endorse him. He won’t raise any money. He now has McKelvey’s office in his office in Danville. Has McKelvey promised him something ? Isn’t McKelvey the one who proposed a 3202 like tax program for Smith Mountain lake ?
Chris, you wrote: “McPadden said (paraphrasing, but the audio is online) that the legislature controls what the Courts can and cannot do. He said that by passing a majority vote, they (Congress) can tell the Supreme Court not to hear anymore (abortion) cases.”
Let’s go to the U.S. Constitution, shall we. Mike didn’t have time to completely answer the question but he is correct in both cases. The US Supreme Court being the exception, the other courts were created and funded by Congress, I site Article 1 section 7 & 8 as sources. The lower Federal Courts have been closed before by Congress. In section 7 the House writes about financial bills and section 8 it states “To constitute tribunals inferior to the Supreme Court”.
On the Abortion issue, since nowhere in the US Constitution does it give the Federal Government jurisdiction; the 10 Amendment then should apply. It’s up to the several States and the people, not the Federal Courts.
BTW Those couple votes YodraN and others keep mentioning that Bob Hurt made; they wouldn’t be the Unconstitutional State law Sen. Hurt voted for, or was it the other bill, oh what was it, oh yea the Tax bill supported by most of the Statehouse Democrats, ‘then’ Gov. Warner, and a few RINO’s that gave Virginians the largest tax increase in our Commonwealth’s history. The following year the largest surplus rolled into and became part of our current baseline budget. The same Budget ‘then Gov’ Kaine and the Statehouse had so much trouble cutting after grower larger oh so quickly under both Warner & Kaine.
We in the 5th can do better. We can find another Statesman, someone to represent us; all of us; using the US Constitution as there guide! Only one Candidate in the 5th District has truly defended our Constitutional principles; as a Naval Aviator Mike McPadden surrendered his rights to protect all of us while serving in the U.S. Navy. He understands the concept, a duty to Serve. Mike McPadden wants to serve America, he will find like minded principled Citizens in Congress that will lead us out of this spending spree, and Mike will help restore our Liberties!
More bad news for Feda:
http://www2.dailyprogress.com/cdp/news/state_regional/state_regional_govtpolitics/article/mortons_passages_mirror_columnsts/56279/
Then again, our President is a plagarist, so why should we be too hard on her, right?
Those are really great beliefs Cardinal, but they are not facts. McPadden (and you) can wish all you want that the federal courts can’t rule on abortion, but Griswold, Roe, Carhart, PP v Casey, and others all seem to be federal rulings about abortion. Citing a Ron Paul newsletter does not make something true. I listened to the audio again just to make sure, and yes, McPadden said that a statute could prevent another abortion case from being heard at the federal level ever again. Bull. And it had nothing to do w/ time, he went on for over a minute after that. It’s fine to have (unusual) constitutional theories, but don’t lie to people on a stage that your theories are fact and undeniable.
1. No one in this conversation has endorsed or seems to be supporting Feda. SHe is irrelevant, I have always though and said that she was in over her head….but all the attacks does make one wonder…which other candidates are concerned by her enough to slow leak all this at the last hour?
2. Chris. Technically, I think McPadden is possibly right. The congress can in fact, by statute, preclude federal courts from hearing certain types of cases..that is one of the congressional checks on the judiciary. If that is done, then in effect, and of course if the SCUS continues on its path of only hearing cases that are appelatte in nature form rulings of federal courts, then I would think it could work.
I do not think it will ever happen though, and if it did it may not achieve the goals that are desired, and could be changed every time the congress takes a whim…those are two of the main reason I would not think this course of action to be prudent.
However, his “life begins at conception act” as it relates to all federal funding and action is prudent, wise and a smart move.
We can discuss whether his idea of precluding federal courts from hearing abortion cases is the wisest way to combat the prevalence of what consider to be nothing short of ‘mass infanticide’ by way federal taxpayer funding….. but at least technically anyway, he does have a point..IMO.
I am as prolife as they come, but I winched when Mike said that and though “like that is going to happen”. I felt better though after he reminded us of his “life act”, I think that is a really good start and a better approach.
First Feda, and now McKelvey looks bad in the latest Hook Magazine article on the candidates. Who do I vote for now?
NotMcPadden,
Just because one person who happens to be a McPadden supporter, possibly reads something online and calls a friend with that info…does not mean there is a “coordinated effort” from the McPadden Campaign. Come on dude. It could just simply be a case of gossip.