(Last update: 5th District Republican Primary – Update #1)
Ten days from our first update, let’s see what’s been going on in the 5th District.
Let’s kick it off with an update on each of the candidates (in random order).
- Jim McKelvey – McKelvey is starting to spend (his own) money and is running TV ads. He’s picking up some name recognition in the Southside region. Since our last update, McKelvey comes out UP.
- Robert Hurt – Hurt continues to saturate the region with direct mail. He’s also released a poll that shows himself in a big lead. He’s still got a lot of money to do even more advertising and it’s finally looking like his campaign is fully in gear. Since our last update, Hurt comes out STRONGLY UP.
- Ron Ferrin – I have no idea what his campaign is doing because I haven’t heard anything out of him. He’ll make it to the finish line, so I guess that’s something. Since our last update, Ferrin comes out EVEN.
- Mike McPadden – His campaign has pretty much defeated the negative things that have came out in the past few weeks. Money doesn’t seem to be a limiting factor in his campaign and he’s going to need it to get any significant part of the Southside votes. Since our last update, McPadden comes out EVEN.
- Ken Boyd – Boyd still has his group of supporters but he’s not doing much to add people to that group. He’s got to get money and spend it quickly. Since our last update, Boyd comes out EVEN.
- Feda Morton – Ugh. This has been a disastrous time period for Morton’s campaign. She’s hammered by the release of child-custody case information (more on that later) and today she was hit by strong allegations of plagiarism. Her statement on the plagiarism allegations was horrible, as it’s pretty clear that the plagiarism happened. Add all of that to a severe lack of money and it’s not looking good. Since our last update, Morton comes out STRONGLY DOWN.
- Laurence Verga – Verga’s advertising on radio, but his latest ad repeats the same “Robert Hurt Raises Taxes” crap. If it wasn’t for that, I’d have thought that Verga’s campaign had mailed it in. Since our last update, Verga comes out EVEN.
Now for some thoughts and observations…
- At this stage of the game, EVEN ain’t gonna cut it. The finish line is finally in sight and every candidate should have already started throwing everything they have into their campaigns.
- Feda Morton is a very nice person, however I’m fearing that we’re watching her campaign implode. It’s not pretty.
- There’s one “observer” in this race who is completely useless. He’s made up his own prediction numbers under the guises of “best educated guess” and adjusts them wildly based on how the wind changes.
- Today (Wednesday), both the Danville & Lynchburg Tea Party leaders came out with their endorsements. One was well-written and one was unexpectedly bizarre. It’s way too early for SC’s endorsement on this race.
- Even though the Tea Party leaders came out with their endorsements, the other members of the groups seem to be in disagreement with their choices (especially in Danville).
- Money is the factor that’s determining the tiers of campaigns. The more money that the candidate has, the better they’re going to do. It’s a sad but true fact.
- Feda Morton’s child-custody issues have no relevance to her campaign and anybody that thinks that they do is a jerk. Divorces can be nasty and crap like that is useless when pulled out years later. Morton’s a good person and nothing like those documents make her out to be.
- That being said, the plagiarism stuff isn’t good for Morton at all. Her statement about it completely blew it off and that’s compounded the negativity.
- I firmly believe that this primary election will be decided by the Lynchburg & Southside areas because the Charlottesville region seems to be split by the home-area candidates. The candidates have got to get advertising & name-recognition in Southside to have a chance in the election.
That’s it for now. Let’s hear what you have to say.
Right now I think the only two viable candidates are Boyd and Hurt. This is going a really tough general election for any candidate to win. If PA-12 taught us anything, it’s that blind anger at the administration from the TEA party does not win elections.
I really hope that Hurt can come up with positive agenda and hopefully a revenue-neutral alternative energy plan.
You know where I stand:
http://themindofvamike.blogspot.com/2010/02/climate-change-insanity-and-energy.html
The Stanley Furniture layoffs is the wildcard. The affected people and I think most of Southside will be voting economics over politics in this election. I know a lot of people will call me a RINO, but it’s time to look to the future on energy and get innovative to provide the jobs of tomorrow.
In PA-12….the democrat ran on a conservative economic and social platform against most of the Pelosi/Reid/Obama strategies…no? It is a democrat leaning district that voted in a democrat..no surprise there – the surprise was that they did not vote in a rubber stamp to the liberal agenda.
He is pro 2nd amendment. Pro life. Is for smaller government. Wants to increase domestic oil drilling and Opposes cap and trade. I think he also opposes card check…. on and on.
http://www.critzforcongress.com/section/issues
Perriello will run in support of the wild haired liberal agenda (both economically and socially), having voted for many of them already…in lock step.
I am leaning more and more toward Boyd over McPadden…but honestly, if the primary were today…the screen could just as well be touched for either one when I walk in and look at that touch screen.
In fact Critz very likely got some “tea party” votes in PA.
DO you really think that anyone in the 5th who agrees with tea party movement could cast a vote for Tom Perriello?
You are completely off base about the northern part of the 5th. There are only two candidates from the Charlottesville area that have any real chance of winning- Boyd and McPadden. Verga has no base and no where to expand- Verga will absolutely have paid the highest $ per vote ratio of all the candidates (nothing to be proud of). Feda’s supporters are in disarray and may stay home or vote for someone else. Boyd seems to be in the news everyday up here and even got a nice cover story in a local weekly- lots of free media but who knows how long that’s going to last.If he brings a late surge of money that might make a difference. McPadden seems to have done a decent job of grass roots but some Feda supporters are accusing him of being behind the child custody story, in what can only be called a nasty whisper campaign that’s as bad as the custody story that begat it. (personally after reading the story I wouldn’t be shocked if the ex-husband didn’t leak the story and agree the plagiarism story is the real problem) The Feda and McPadden seem the two camps most likely to be in a steel cage match.
McKelvey’s lemonade stand TV ad is an abomination that makes no sense and may in fact lose him votes. It gives a his outsider campaign a very amateur look that doesn’t seem very “congressional”. The other ads and radio are fine but not very professional considering how much money he’s got. This race is still Hurt’s to lose- he hasn’t made an big mistakes and looks text book in a very unusual race. Hurt’s got money and the best name id. Unless the others go negative and bring his numbers down this may already be over. If McKelvey can’t cut into Hurt’s base he will lose by double digits.
This will come down to Hurt turning out the base and his supporters- I believe the TEA party influence is overstated and fragmented between the Mc’s with Nigel Coleman’s endorsement of Feda being the exception. Boyd best hope seems to be an enormous turnout in the northern part of the 5th. However if the a public poll comes out that is similar results from Hurt’s poll then this race is may already over.
My simplistic analysis of the race as of today.
Four players now – McPadden, McKelvey, Boyd, Hurt
McPadden and McKelvey will split the “tea party” vote. McPadden doing better in the northern part of the district, McKelvey doing better in the southern part.
Boyd and Hurt will split the “establishment” vote. Boyd doing better in the northern part of the disctrict, Hurt doing better in the southern part.
These candidates balance these two dimensions fairly evenly (tea party vs. establishment, north vs. south), but if one of these seriously fades (e.g., due to Feda-like revelations, or whatever), the winner can more easily be predicted.
If Hurt fades, Boyd will win the nomination.
If Boyd fades, Hurt will win the nomination.
If McKelvey fades, McPadden will win the nomination.
If McPadden fades, McKelvey will win the nomination.
Boyd/Hurt have an edge over McPadden/McKelvey, due to the further splittng of the tea party vote between Verga/Morton/Ferrin (< 10%???), so if no one fades, Boyd or Hurt wins.
If Verga/Morton/Ferrin drop-out, and no one seriously fades, we have a fairly close 4 way race.
Ferrin told me last Saturday that he had no incentive to drop out.
If Verga is running attack ads, that indicates to me that he is firmly in his “2 weeks before election” mode that most candidates adopt. That doesn’t sound like a man who is considering dropping out.
Feda–who can say?
I get alot of direct mail from Hurt. I have rec’d one mailer from McK & it was a few weeks ago. Nothing from the others in the last month. I suspect the mailing list for any of them is the GOP donor list & the 2008 GOP primary voter list & maybe some othernames that have come to their attention along the way. interesting to know.
http://www.readthehook.com/stories/2010/05/20/COVER-5th-dist-republicans-B.aspx
McKelvey sounds like a dick. I hadn’t thought that before. More thoughts later.
I wouldn’t count Feda out just yet. If this is the best swiftboating they can do to her there’s still plenty of time to hold out. That they went so negative shows how strong she’s been. It ain’t over yet.
JoeIn5th Feda’s campaign manager,events coordinator,and ALOT of her volunteers have quit her campaign this week. Not to mention the FACT the campaign is beyond BROKE. Feda needs to realize it is OVER.
Will, why are her (Feda)volunteers quitting her campaign? why is her paid staff quitting?
Kelley the main reason is the campaign is broke would be my guess along with the dirt that was dug up on her.2 She wasn’t up front with her volunteers.Kinda like the old saying don’t live in a glass house if you are going to throw rocks.
Mike, I think you’re missing the point about Pennsylvania 12th. First off, Burns was NOT just blind anger at the administration by a Tea Partier. He was the establishment Republican who was hand picked to run. And in his Republican primary for the fall he faced a significant challenge FROM a Tea Partier!
If Pennsylvania 12th teaches us anything, it’s that assuming that blind anger toward Democrats will win the day for Republicans. You actually need to stand for something. And a career politician like Hurt isn’t the best candidate to represent a choice, not an echo.
Second, to Tarheal, I’ve got to correct you about Perriello. Painting Perriello as a total lock step liberal is dangerous because he’s not. He’s zigged and zagged enough to have a centrist voting record. He’s pro-2nd Amendment. He stood up to stop federal funding of abortions. He opposes card check. Supports drilling.
Painting him as a liberal extremist is bad for us because it makes us look irrational. We’re not. So let’s not exaggerate how liberal he is.
Also, I’m a Tea Party member and I’d consider voting for Perriello if only Perriello and Hurt were on the ballot. So that’s one.
NAS: as to P’s stand on card check: he has alot of union money. alot of union money. wouldn’t the unions think they are buying a vote? P would vote for card check & try to tell the 5th that he was doing it to bring more industry here. (yeah, he might convince 3 people).
about P’s anti-abortion stand in re: Obamacare: the Obamacare bill still allows fed funding of abortions; it is EO signed by Obama that prohibits them. that EO can be undone by another EO. I would think the true pro-life/anti-abortion voters know this.
if TEA partiers are outraged that Congress as a whole, with certain Congressman more at fault than others, are not listening to them, they will gun for Perriello.
“we’ll keep stealing until you stop us”
i will be so glad when this primary is over & we can get to the task at hand. Beating Perriello.
Kelley, Perriello’s a Democrat. So what if he has a lot of union money behind him? HE’S A DEMOCRAT. The fact is he’s publicly opposed card check.
Obamacare does not allow for federal funding of abortion. It’s total bullshit coming from the marginalized Christian right. The Tea Party movement has totally stolen the light from the Christian right and they are just trying to make shit up to stay relevant.
Perriello listens, he just doesn’t agree with you. Which is part of the reason why I respect the guy. He listens, which is a hell of a lot more than the rest of the crowd in Washington. And give Hurt the seat and you can be sure as hell that he won’t listen.
NAS: Perriello did not listen to his constituents about cap ‘n trade or Obamacare.
and I read both the House & Senate versions of Obamacare. Abortion was fedfunded in at least one of the health ins plans provided. Several Dems even admitted that.
P may try to say that his constituents were in favor of Obamacare (personally, I don’t believe that). But obviously, the bill was/is highly controversial. He could have voted NO & maybe gotten the full Va Dem delegation to vote NO & re-worked the bill.
Morton, Verga and Ferrin – out for the count, two of my neighbors pulled their Feda yard signs down, they will stay home.
Boyd – No chance, a tired old man without even one yard sign south of Nelson county, zero chance
McKelvey – doing great for now but when Hurt hits him hard with the skeletons in his closet it will be all over for McKelvey. A womanizer will have a hard time in the 5th.
Hurt – The GOP hand picked anointed one, still the front-runner but voting for the biggest tax increase in Virginia history is killing him. The Virginia-Pilot story about how Gov. McDonnell refuses to endorse his personal friend of 15 years doesn’t bode well for Hurt either. His faked poll didn’t help either. This campaign keeps stepping in do-do.
McPadden is now my guy, and I think it’s a 50/50 toss up between Hurt and McPadden now. I travel for work throughout the fifth district and McPadden is the only guy with signs all over the fifth district in real people yards, not just shoved on roadsides. I traveled Lunenburg, Mecklenburg and Brunswick on my route today, McPadden signs 4 to 1 over McKelvey and Hurt combined. I only see Hurt near his home and McKelvey at Smith Mtn Lake. And like I said Boyd the other guy I like, no one south of Nelson has his signs and people don’t even know who he is. From my route stops everyone knows Hurt, McKelvey and McPadden and people don’t like Hurt.
FYI Manchen – The reporter from the Hook – Lisa Provence – came out and told everyone on WINA that it was Feda’s own family that brought the story to her and that McPadden had nothing to do with it. McPadden doesn’t need to worry about Feda.
NotAndySere,
He stood up against federal funding for abortion? Are you kidding me? He pretended to, then voted with Nancy Pelosi as instructed on the Health care reform bill that certainly allows for federal funding of abortions.
He has voted in lock step, except when the liberals had enough votes to pass what they wanted and he was given permission to vote no because he serves in a conservative leaning district.
While I agree that overplaying how liberal he is is dangerous, it is just as dangerous to underplay it. We have to show a clear difference….and there is one. He is a liberal and the republican candidate (whomever it is) will be, to varying degrees amongst the 7 candidates, conservative. Those governing philosiphies are vastly different, and if we do not expose that clearly and strongly, there is not a bit of doubt in my mind – we will lose.
Hurt uses the same pollster as do Cuccinelli & McDonnell. All of the candidates are running polls now to direct advertising. I don’t know why the other candidates won’t release theirs.
One of the candidates (one of the Mc’s) claimed to have positive results from poll run by Larry Sabato’s organization. Sabato’s organization said no poll was ever conducted. So that poll was truly faky!
Kelly,
I saw the Hurt poll, and the accompanying press release. I read over the one sentence ‘methodology’ section, and did not see what the questions actually were and the script. To me, a credible poll should release that information.
Kelly, why do you drop information (some might say accusations) like that, and where do you get them? Where did you get that information?
tarheel, the issue about one campaign issuing a positive poll from the Sabato people which was then refuted by the Sabato people came from a blog.
the whole back & forth was quoted on a blog.
if I can find it, I will share it with you. it was maybe 2 weeks ago(?).
will white & NAS keep track of the blogs so they might know offhand.
tarheel: the discussion is found on virginiafifthwatchdog.com, 5/4/2010 post. McPadden claimed that Center for Politics was running tracking polls showing him ahead. Center for Politics denied this.
McPadden sent out an email that had him leading a “unpublished” UVa poll that had him at 30%. The source was some obscure website where someone had left a comment about it. It was TOTALLY made up as the Daily Progress reported that UVa denied any polls existed. McPadden never explained this oversight or apologized for being “duped”. Feda Morton has NEVER explained the plagiarizing charge either
McPadden sent out questionable and now proven false poll results under his name in an email. If he had not sent it out I won’t have an issue with it. This is quite troubling and seems sleazy to me. I’m tired of candidates who will do and say anything to get elected. McPadden lectures about integrity and in this case I found his lacking. The same with Feda as well, who only says about these charges are about the straw poll and how other candidates felt threatened.
We need better than this in the 5th if we have any chance of beating Perriello and his union machine.
Kinda like when Hurt signs a pledge not to vote to raise taxes AFTER he voted FOR the largest tax increase in Va’s history or when he says he believes marriage is between one man and one woman but he voted to give same-sex couples the same rights as domestic partners have.Does anyone think Hurt would stand up to the Democrats if things got tough ? Hurt is EXACTLY the problem we have in WDC now career lawyer politicians.Im not going to take it anymore. It is past time to take our country back.
The McPadden email qualified the mention of these poll results by saying, “…these results cannot be verified…”. I don’t think he misrepresented anything.
Also, if you look at that obscure blog, you will see the original poster added a follow-up post saying that the poll was done by interns and that these are not made public.
If they can’t be verified, you don’t email them around. Simple as that.
No soap Stephen-the poll never existed according to the people who would know-UVA. The candidate is responsible for what goes out under their name. It’s wrong and it lacks integrity. If you can’t verify then leave it out. Our next congressman owes us the best information with which to make a choice. McPadden failed us with this email because he only saw his name as the leader. I need someone who will do the hard thing, not the easy one. The hard thing would have been McPadden leave this poll alone until he could verify it- he didn’t and did the easy and selfish thing by trying to take advantage of a VERY dubious source that has been proven to be false.
McPadden talks about honor and integrity and in this case I continue to find him wanting
What’s the plagiarism charge? I’ve been out of contact for a couple of days, so I haven’t seen it.
Also, you’ll notice that my name no longer links to Mrs. Morton’s website.
SG:
http://www2.dailyprogress.com/cdp/news/state_regional/state_regional_govtpolitics/article/mortons_passages_mirror_columnsts/56279/
Wow. I go out of town for a few days and all kinds of stuff goes down. The next question is: did she “write” it herself or did someone on the campaign staff “write” it for her?
Would you mind going out of town a couple more days? We really need to weed out some more of these candidates. 😉
YodraN have we weeded any candidates out yet ? If so it is news to me.
“Also, you’ll notice that my name no longer links to Mrs. Morton’s website.”
Samuel: You’re a former Feda supporter? If so, who do you support now? To which camp are other Feda supporters going?
WW: I just mean that even people who supported Feda (or still had her on their lists as possible choices) are dropping her from consideration. No one’s officially dropped out, but what little chance Feda had is now zero.
I’m thinking a couple bombshells could know a couple of other straggler out of this race. If not officially, at least in the minds of, you know, voters.
Rather than tearing down the candidates for a few minutes…
I challenge each of the preceeding bloggers to tell me which candidate most exudes American exceptionalism, and why.
Stephen: I am back in the undecided camp. Other Feda supporters to whom I have spoken recently are in the same boat. I will be attending a forum tomorrow night in Martinsville; hopefully, I can make a solid decision then.
JW: I choose Ron Ferrin. Mr. Ferrin has little to no shot of actually winning this election. He has no money. His only name recognition is among the political class. Despite these factors, we take what he has to say seriously. Our political discussion is better because of Mr. Ferrin’s presence in the race. We’ve not heard ridiculous attacks or bombastic campaign propaganda from Mr. Ferrin. As best I can tell from my perch at W&L, Mr. Ferrin simply goes out every day and campaigns with a positive message. For that, he has certainly earned my respect, if not my vote.
Ferrin does seem to be an up-front guy.
Samuel: I’d be interested to hear what you think after the forum, so it would be great if you could report back on this forum.
TARHEEL, you said “I saw the Hurt poll, and the accompanying press release. I read over the one sentence ‘methodology’ section, and did not see what the questions actually were and the script. To me, a credible poll should release that information.”
Apparently, you did not see much of the pollster’s statement. Very plainly, they stated that there was no political statements of any kind prior to the question being asked, and, that the question merely asked….”Who do you prefer in the Republican primary for the 5th Congressional District seat?”…….or words very similar to that, as I don’t have it in front of me now.
They did not as liberal and Democrat-sponsored pollsters always do………namely, word the qusetion in a leading fashion to elicit a desired response! Nice try, TARHEEL, but no cigar in VIRGINIA !
So the candidate that you all think exudes American exceptionalism is Ron Ferrin?
I think I will go to a more discerning forum. Bye
Want a real poll….
Here is one.
“Public policy polling” did a CREDIBLE poll back in February. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_211.pdf
In this poll Hurt v. Periello were tied at 44% with 18% undecided (UND). Good news for Hurt and our desire to beat Perriello right?
Well, not exactly. Not at all actually. Lets be honest. We know that if Hurt wins the nod, that at least McKelvey and also possibly Clark will run. Those men will certainly take votes cast in the poll away for Hurt. Periello would then only need to pick up very little if any of the 18% UND to coast right back into his seat. In fact this question and answer is VERY revealing!
If the candidates for Congress this fall were
Democrat Tom Perriello, Republican Robert
Hurt, and a Tea Party candidate who would
you vote for? If Tom Perriello, press 1. If
Robert Hurt, press 2. If a Tea Party candidate,
press 3. If you’re undecided, press 4.
Perriello………………………………………………….. 44%
Hurt……………………………………………………….. 27%
Tea Party ……………………………………………….. 19%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Even if all the UND move to Hurt….he still looses big!
That is not encouraging to our efforts to take the seat back!
That is a very contributory reason to why I cannot cast a vote for Robert Hurt in the primary.
tarheel: are you positive that McKelvey CAN run? i thought the Commonwealth had a sore loser law.
you are citing Feb’s poll. 2 comments here: there has been alot of water over the dam since then–the outrage at Congress (& thus even our little Congressman) has grown. And, Hurt’s name ID has gone up. Who else on that poll would even have a shot at TP?
beating Perriello will not be easy. we will all have to work hard.
Yes, I think he can run. Tucker Watkins tried to get all the candidates to sign a “if I do not get the mod, I will not run” pledge. McKelvey refused to do so. Why would Mr. Watkins seek a pledge if it were already law?
According to the results of that poll…it seemed that Boyd and McPadden were within striking distance (Boyd more so than McPadden)…and both have made gains since February.
Yes Hurt’s name recognition is up, but it is important to note that many of the people that now recognize his name do so associating it with the guy who now some promises things different from some of past voting record.
Name recognition does not always equate to votes.
that should say “nod”…not “mod”…LOL
tarheel, there is sore loser law in Va. If any candidate wants to run as independent, they must have all signatures, petitions & filing fees to SBE by 7pm 6/8.
so if any of the present field is thinking of independent run, they are probably circulating petitions now.
Kelley Clark has turned in his signatures. He told me if ANY of the candidates except Hurt wins he will drop out.If Hurt wins the PRIMARY Perriello wins the general election it is that simple folks.Another note to the elected officials that have endorsed Hurt you are really putting your neck on the chopping block.
Will, Frank Ruff & Tommy WRight have worked hard for Sen. Hurt. Do you think Republicans are not going to vote for them in the future because they supported Hurt?
Kim White in Halifax is working hard for Sen. Hurt. Do you think she will lose her seat because of this support?
What about Perriello’s support of Nancy Pelosi? I would say that support endangers him more than support of Sen Hurt endangers our local officials.
or Will, look at similar situation: if an elected official supports Feda, what does that say about that official?
As a Hurt supporter, I appreciate the help we’re getting from everyone–elected or not.
Kelley Im not sure about the ones you mentioned but I was at dinner last night and a couple sitting near me saw my I LIKE MIKE sticker and came over to talk. He said as i have heard may times he was tired of voting for the lesser of two evils. He also went on to say that since Watt Abbott had seen if to endorse Hurt he would no longer support him anymore so Kelley some officals are going to feel the heat.If Hurt wins the primary and loses the general election people are going to be pissed at everyone that has endorsed Hurt.Kelley things have CHANGED the politics of 20 years ago are not the politics of today.
Kelley you said you had never met Tucker Watkins before last Saturday but you know Kim White ?
Watkins Abbitt? Is that who you are referring to? He supports Hurt.
do you know the demographics & politics of Watkins district? interesting place so there may be more at play with that person than what any of us know.
Someone who doesn’t support Abbitt, Ruff, WRight or any of the others because they support Hurt is someone who didn’t support those officials anyway. lame excuse.
yes, I know & admire Kim White.
Tarhell and others,
McKelvey is not going to run as a third party. He cannot unless he registers as an independent by the June 8th deadline. Clark is not going to have any impact WHATSOEVER in this race.
Aaron do you realize Perriello won by ONLY 727 votes ? I think as upset as the true conservative Republicans are right now Clark can get more than 727 votes in the 5th district with the Tea party support along with a few indys.
So Kelley are you telling me that you think supporting Hurt is going to help these elected officals in their next election ?
Will,
These elected officials are supporting Sen Hurt, because as they have said, Robert Hurt is the right man to send to Congress.
Kelly, the way I understand it, Mckelvey can run a write in campaign…what is Hurt, or the RPV going to court in the middle of an hard fought campaign to enjoin him from running…I think not.
Do you have a link for that ‘law’, I ask this because I did in fact ask a county registrar if he could run after losing a primary and she said “yes, if he submits the signatures and paperwork as an independent, or he could run a write-in campaign”.
Or the elected officials are supporting him, as he us a member of thier own club. Perhaps they want to send Hurt to Washington so as to increase thier own influence there.
I am not saying that all of them are doing that, but it is a another way of looking at your spin.
code section is 24.2-520. one lawyer told me yesterday that they thought the law would preclude putting his name on the ballot in any way. therefore write-in would be his only option.
a law suit would not be req’d. the SBE (or whichever administrative body) would not be able to certify him to be on the ballot & could not print ballot with his name on it.
I cannot presume to speak for either Frank Ruff or Tommy WRight. But i do know in both instances, these men want to beat Perriello badly. Maybe in their political expertise, they see RH as the candidate best situated to do that.
Kelly, you need a blog. Are you on Facebook or twitter?
Kelley I went to Lunenburg Saturday saw alot of McPadden and McKelvey signs funny thing I only saw three Hurt signs and five Feda signs.
The way it works is this. Any one who wants to run in this race has to be registered to run either as a republican, independent, or dem by june 8th. If you are not then you cannot run. McKelvey is currently registered as a republican. If he wants to run as an independent he will have to register as one before the primary date.
He can run a write in campaign, those are always legal and no law suit would be required.
jeff: Hurt has alot of 4 x 8 (feet) signs in the county (the old free state of Lunenburg). If you did not see one, I can almost pin point how you came to the county because there are only 2 routes into the county (save for really back roads) that don’t have at least one 4 x 8 on the road. But as soon as the farmers on these roads cut hay, we’ll get those big signs up.
I, too, have seen opponents signs here. Some are on VDOT right of ways. One big VDOT bush hog chewed up a McP sign last week on the road between Kenbridge & South Hill.
Nigel, thanks for noticing. But I don’t know enough to have my own blog (Will White will surely agree with that statement). And I already have enough to do without getting into FB.
As requested, a report on the Southside Republican Women forum last night:
Neither I nor my father were terribly impressed with any of the candidates and at this point we’re considering writing in Lucy.
Kelley, as much as you comment on message board you could build a pretty good following on FB.
Samuel: Thanks for reporting back. Sorry to hear the forum wasn’t productive for you. What are your views on McPadden and McKelvey?
Stephen:
McKelvey, from what I understand, was usually more fiery than he was last night, so I don’t know what was going on there. I’m concerned about McKelvey based on his association with Jeff Clark, the independent threatening to run if/when Robert Hurt wins the primary. I think if you’re going to run in a primary, you need to support the winner of the process and not be a sore loser, but hey, that’s just me.
I had met McPadden before at a previous Martinsville campaign stop. He comes across as very sincere, but I think he’s wrong about some issues, and so does my Ron Paul-loving friend Will (and that takes a lot). I’m thinking especially of the whole paper money thing, and that’s the sort of stuff that Tom Perriello would use to paint McPadden as out of the mainstream (which it is, let’s be real, he’s to the right of Will, that’s about Genghis Khan territory).
To be more helpful than my last post, which was typed hurriedly earlier:
Verga rubbed me the wrong way for whatever reason; another ex-Feda supporter really liked him, so you win some, you lose some. He didn’t really say anything wrong, none of them did. I just wasn’t a fan.
Boyd didn’t stand out either. His main appeal to me right now is that he’d cut into the Albemarle/Charlottesville base that Perriello has right now.
Next in line on stage was McPadden, already talked about him.
Ron Ferrin was next in line, I think I already mentioned how I feel about him upthread.
Feda was 3rd from right, we’ve been talking about her all thread.
Hurt was 2nd from right; he seemed aloof and came across as the professional of the seven, but he said all the right things.
McKelvey was on the end and I already talked about him.
Overall, none of them had the X-factor that Virgil has or Barack Obama has. Nobody said anything to fire up the crowd about beating Tom Perriello. Several seemed taken aback when they were asked why the voters should choose them on June 8th. They just weren’t terribly inspiring, and I left feeling like Tom Perriello would win re-election in November.
And just for kicks and giggles, here’s the Martinsville Bulletin’s article on the forum. It’s basically accurate: http://martinsvillebulletin.com/article.cfm?ID=23760
Samuel: I cut/pasted this from Mcpadden for congress website. I don’t find his views on this out of the mainstream. It sounds pretty responsible to me…
“Sound money is gold and silver. If you want a sound economy then you must demand sound money. Without sound money? Well, you get the economy that we have right now. The Constitution is very explicit about money. The Federal Government may only coin money and set the value thereof. They may not print paper money. The States also may not print paper money. Additionally the States may not require citizens to accept debt payments, i.e. legal tender laws, in anything other than gold and silver. Obviously I am not suggesting that we all carry gold and silver coins around, I am saying that our money must be backed by something that retains its value over time. Our founders figured this out over two hundred years ago. How hard is this to understand? Just follow the Constitution.”
“The Federal Government … may not print paper money.”
If that’s mainstream…
I’m not going to argue with you about it, though, I have better things to do with my life.
Kelley a campaign event is coming near you very soon would you be able to attend ? Can’t say where yet it is being worked on now.
will, could I meet you? that is my fondest wish.
Yes, it is going to be a event for Mike McPadden if meeting little old me can get you there im all for that but only if you will keep a open mind when you come.
I will also be in Lynchburg for the debate this week.
Mike is not saying for us to go back to carrying gold coins, but rather is “saying that our money must be backed by something that retains its value over time.”
I personnally don’t like the IOU system in place right now.
Because we are not soundly backing up our paper money, unfortunately our government is expanding at a record pace.
Will… I have some comments in moderation over at the watchdog site replying specifically to you. If they don’t get unmoderated I’ll be sure to try and repost them here.
YodraN I did my best to answer you.
Will, There are alot of us out here that think Robert Hurt can beat Perriello. Can he beat Perriello if conservatives stay home? no.
Kelley it doesn’t bother you at all that Hurt voted for the largest tax increase in Va’s history or voted to give same-sex couples the same rights you and your husband have ? Kelley im not trying to pick a fight I just think Hurt has made some very bad choices.
Will, given the severe reductions services/personnel i see now in judiciary, Commonwealth’s Atty offices & other sectors, I’m glad there was tax increase when he voted for it. some of these departments have been cut back to dangerous levels now. i can only imagine if they had been cut then.
and about benes for same-sex couples, I will go back & look at the statute if someone can reference it. I’m not very homophobic.
Well Kelley if those things don’t bother you at all does the FACT that Hurt doesn’t have ANY of the Tea party support or that alot of Republican are not going to support him in the general election bother you ? What about the FACT that Hurt is the ONLY candidate that WILL make this a three way race does that not bother you ?
This is what I think Will: when Robert Hurt runs against Tom Perriello & people can see the philosophical differences between the two, people are going to vote for Robert Hurt. Unless they are Democrats.
Will White,
You are ignoring the fact that that Hurt won the Danville Tea Party poll. You ignore the comments recently from Kurt Fiegel from the Lynchburg Tea Party and Bill Hay of the Jefferson Area TEA party. You are sadly mistaken on this race and clearly know so little that no one with sense takes you seriously. He also won the Martinsville poll Saturday night where about 100 people were there including many TEA Party people. You know nothing but attack and have done it so much that you are irrelevant.
As far as Jeff Clark goes, he was rejected by his own TEA Party and has no visibility anywhere except the Lynchburg TEA Party. He will not be a factor in any way. McKelvey has his Danville office in Clark’s office and it will be interesting to see how they do this on the McKelvey FEC report.
I have made up my mind im voting for McKelvey.He won’t take a salary or benefits and wants term limits this is the kind of man we need.
Is that you Tucker ?
Kelley where is the big difference between Perriello and Hurt ? They are alot more alike than most people realize. A nice mailer is coming out next week to show exactly how much they are alike. Can’t wait till you see it Kelley.
Will,
Which campaign is that coming from?
Bruce did you go to the debate in Lynchburg tonight ?
No. There’s been way too many “forums” for this group of people and zero “debates”. I just saw a news report on it and the candidates said the same things that they’ve said at every other forum. Enough already.
Also, they had another straw poll at the Liberty U forum, and I’m just waiting for some candidate to use that as Uncontroversial Truth that they’re in the lead in this race.
Finally, I’ll repost a tweet that I just sent out about WDBJ’s lack of fact-checking. “@WDBJ7 It’s “FEE-da” not “Feh-da”, and “Laurence” not “Lawrence”. Do you even know where the 5th District is?”
I’m getting very tired of this crap because it’s so repetitive… but I am working on another update article.
Bruce, I’ll give you an update article right now, so you don’t have to work so hard.
Robert Hurt is going to win.
End of story.
Samuel: I was asked for a quote yesterday about my predictions for the race. My answer was “Hurt has a 99% chance of winning. The only way he’ll lose is if somebody produces photos of him stomping puppies to death at a dumpster.”
(See, I’m just as good as Isaac Wood at providing quotes. Maybe Catherine Amos will call me next time. 😀 )
SSC wrote; “No. There’s been way too many “forums” for this group of people and zero “debates”. I just saw a news report on it and the candidates said the same things that they’ve said at every other forum. Enough already.”
Offered as expertise from the man who has not been to a single one.
LOL
Reply: Wrong. Quite wrong. Jack Dunavant would be proud of the tactic you just attempted to use. Nice try.
Yeah Bruce like when you said some of the workers had bought the Triangle Ford building and were running a used dealership that was doing really good.Two weeks later it closed and the workers had NEVER bought the building.The same people own it today that did when it was Triangle Ford but it is for sale.
Reply: Yep. Because everybody knows that one partially-incorrect statement about a used-car dealership published over a year ago impeaches everything else that I say. 🙄 By the way, I had gotten that information from someone that was planning on investing in the building.
You’re using Mr. Heel’s “Jack Dunavant” tactics that he used above you in a quite bizarre manner. ‘Tis a shame.
Kelly said
“Will, There are alot of us out here that think Robert Hurt can beat Perriello. Can he beat Perriello if conservatives stay home? no.”
I agree. However, that is the problem that you and Bruce refuse to concede right there. Hurt is the only candidate that will guarantee a third candidate in the race, and he is the only viable one that just might make what we all fear come to pass (some conservatives stay home, or vote 3rd party.
Kelly would you vote for Boyd or McPadden should the win…would you even consider not voting at all if they win? You seem to refuse to understand that some conservatives are going to refuse to vote for Robert Hurt….fair or not, that is the case.
Reply: So you’re saying that one factor on whether we should support or not support somebody should be the possible actions of somebody else? Um… no.
You’re not voting for Robert Hurt. I get that. Now you’re trying to throw in “chaos theory” as a reason for people to not vote for Hurt? Face, meet palm.
Tarheel I agree I have said many times Robert Hurt will never get my vote you have my word on it.
Reply: He’ll do just fine without your vote, and his strategists know that. Hurt and his campaign team are letting the other six candidates go after the voters in the extreme 20% right-wing of the Republican Party because he can easily win in the primary without them. Most of that 20% will buckle and vote for the Republican candidate in the general election, so he doesn’t have to spend political capital attracting them now. Want proof of that? The regional tea parties are fractured in support and will yet again prove ineffective in an election.
You may not like what I have to say. You may experience serious butthurt from what I have to say. However, what I’ve said and am saying is playing out right in front of you, whether you want to see it or not.
Yeah, Hurt got 5 votes last night at the Liberty University straw poll vote last night, so he’ll do just fine without your vote Will!
Okay, folks, it’s story time.
As some of you may know, I used to live in Alabama. Our long-serving Congressman retired in 2002, so there was a primary to determine his replacement. Running in that primary were Jo Bonner, the Congressman’s chief of staff, and six other people whose names escape me at the moment. Do you see where this is going?
Jo Bonner was the “anointed one” and the other six candidates railed against “the establishment” anointing the candidate and so forth. Now, in Alabama, there’s a runoff law, so there was thought that maybe if the other candidates united after the first round, the candidate who advanced might be able to beat Jo Bonner.
Well, primary day rolled around and Jo Bonner got 40% of the vote and advanced to the runoff with a guy named Tom Young, according to the Alabama Secretary of State. I forget why Tom Young was qualified to be in Congress; he was probably just as qualified as the candidates on display here in the fifth (which is to say not at all, if you didn’t catch that). The long and short of it is that the candidates didn’t coalesce around Young (or maybe they did and it just didn’t do any good, I don’t remember) and Jo Bonner won the runoff with 62%. He went on to win the general election in short order.
Moral of the story: the primary was too damn crowded. Perhaps if it had only been Bonner vs. Young to begin with, Young could have drawn a distinction between him and Bonner, but it just wasn’t going to happen with 5 other candidates besides Young all trying to be not-Jo Bonner. So Bonner just walked through the middle and won the election.
This is what will happen on June 8, especially in the absence of a runoff law. You can downvote it and one-star it all you want, but it’s not rocket science.
Love,
Samuel
Hurt might do fine without my vote but time will tell. It would be the first time I was wrong and I know you have been wrong before Bruce.So just because you and Tucker Watkins say so don’t expect me to just believe it.We know how many times Tucker has been wrong just ask Virgil Goode.Tucker told him he didn’t have anything to worry about in 2008.
I meant it wouldn’t be the first time I was wrong.
Bruce..you said I was wrong (and pulling a “Jack D”; which I assume based on your recent article is character assassination) about your not having attended a forum….OK….which ones have you actually attended?
Reply: The links in my reply went to articles about the Danville forum that I attended.
and I am not invoking a chaos thing here….I am stating a fact. Hurt is the only candidate that guarantees a split conservative vote in November….how many conservatives vote for Clark is not known at this point…but some certainly will….and given that a popular sitting congressman was defeated last time by the skin of his teeth….we do not have many votes to lose.
Turn about is fair play, eh?
You are in the tank for Hurt. We get that.
You ‘pronounced him the winner before even hearing or seeing, or even in some cases knowing about his opposition..your first post on the matter called all the others “clown car candidates”. You jumped on the establishment cart quick…that is OK…just admit it.
Reply: I’ll have what you’re having. Objectively, Hurt has a 99% shot of winning this primary now. As I’ve said before, I’d be happy with Mike McPadden or Robert Hurt winning this election.
And “clown car candidates” was coined by Waldo Jaquith. 🙂
Besides, I am betting that you are also in the tank for Perriello, truth be known.
Reply: As Mr. Reagan said, “There you go again.” 😀
Oh yea, I remember now…you went to a danville campaign appearnace for McPadden. After which you removed him from the clown car, if I remember correctly.
How many of the forums have you attended…once would assume that since you said ; “ho hum, they are saying the same thing as the did in every other forum”…one might infer that you have attended several…is that the case?
Reply: See above. And are you really so dense that you haven’t been reading the news reports from each of the forums they’ve held all over the countryside and seeing that they’re all the same?
other than both being young & both being lawyers, how could Hurt & Perriello possibly be alike? huh, will?
Ooh, I’ll take this one!
They both have vowels in their names?
They both breathe oxygen?
They both have been candidates in an election?
Hurt has a secretary named Lincoln and Perriello has a secretary named Kennedy?
😀
Hurt’s a career politician, and Perriello’s not? Does that work?
Kelley have you seen the mailer yet ? Kelley where was Hurt last night? Why is he ducking the forum’s ? Is he scared someone might ask him why he voted for the largest tax increase in Va’s history or is he scared they might ask him why he voted for giving the same rights to same-sex couples that domestic partners have ? At BOTH of the debates it sure has been ALOT of anti HURT people around.
will, what mailer? sent by whom?
and I don’t know where RH was last night.
Kelley to be so connected you sure don’t know much.
Will, not very well connected.
Oh Kelley come on I was just picking on you a little.