(Last update: 5th District Republican Primary – Update #2)
Seven days to go until this election is decided is decided in the voting booth. Let’s do a quick update on whats happened in the last two weeks.
Let’s look at each candidate (in random order)…
- Feda Morton – Morton seems to have semi-survived her campaign’s meltdown about the nasty divorce issues and the plagiarism. She’s lost some of her endorsements, but most of her endorsement list are from the “who the hell are they?” list. Since our last update, Morton comes out EVEN.
- Jim McKelvey – McKelvey continues to run a good campaign, but he’s really stretching the truth on his mailers. However, at this stage of the game the only way that he’s going to beat the frontrunner is to constantly attack. His “Angry Man” character is still attracting a subset of the voters. Since our last update, McKelvey comes out SLIGHTLY UP.
- Ron Ferrin – Ferrin’s having a damned good time in this campaign and it shows in his demeanor. It won’t help him pull any more votes, but it’s fun to see a candidate enjoy the race. Ferrin’s latest play is to tout his endorsement from the Frederick Douglass Foundation to get black votes. It may very well work and get him both of the black votes that will be cast. Since our last update, Ferrin comes out EVEN.
- Robert Hurt – Hurt continues to absorb the attacks from the other candidates and it’s seeming like the attacks don’t bother him one bit. He’s been very quiet over the past month and is coasting to the finish line. Since our last update, Hurt comes out EVEN.
- Mike McPadden – McPadden is keeping his head above water in this race but hasn’t done anything spectacular to set him apart from the rest lately. Since our last update, McPadden comes out EVEN.
- Laurence Verga – Is Verga still in this election? Whatever support base that Verga had is eroding quickly. Since our last update, Verga comes out SLIGHTLY DOWN.
- Ken Boyd – Boyd is still missing from the Southside area, so I’m guessing he’s banking on the Albemarle County vote to carry him to victory. Not gonna happen. Since our last update, Boyd comes out SLIGHTLY DOWN.
Now for the thoughts & observations section…
- Mike McPadden & Robert Hurt are being hit with attack websites that distort their stands on the issues. I’ve got my suspicions on who’s behind this, but no proof yet. All that’s listed on the website is the phone number of 434-262-0706 which has gone to voicemail every time I’ve tried it. The sites are hatchet jobs and I won’t link to them here.
- The Bearing Drift website has endorsed Feda Morton which boggles my mind. I never thought that Nigel Coleman & Bearing Drift would have common ground.
- What in the hell happened to Laurence Verga’s campaign? His campaign started out so strong, and now he’s hovering at the 1% support level.
- I’ll say it again. Ron Ferrin’s having fun with this campaign. Good for him. He’s brought some much-needed humor into this process (although he has no chance of winning)
- Thumbs UP! (hey, that’s another SC feature) to all seven candidates for giving the middle finger to the regional (so-called) pundits who have begged somebody to drop out of the race. If you’ve invested this much emotional and financial capital into your campaign, to hell with the people asking you to drop out.
- For the people that say that there won’t be a consensus winner in this primary, cram it. Yep, the winner is going to get around 40 to 55% of the vote. When you consider that there’s only going to be (at most) 5% turnout for this primary, the results are not going to be anywhere close to indicative of the November election.
- Virgil Goode is not going to run, people. Forget about it. Get over it. Next. Topic.
- Robert Hurt continues his strategy of laying low. It’s working.
- Too. Damned. Many. Forums. (as I’ve said before). Nothing’s changed.
Seven days to go and the finish line’s in sight. More to come? 🙂
You might not vote for Robert Hurt in the primary, but he wants/needs your vote in the general election. That is why he is trying to avoid creating his own attack or hate websites. It must be pretty d*mn tough to know who is creating these websites yet not be able to shout it from the top of his lungs.
After all, the race against Perriello is the big dance.
I’m afraid I have to disagree with SC. It is still not to late for weak Candidates to throw in the towel. As for their voters, many I’m sure know their guy or gal won’t win; what to do? What do you want then, another establishment Candidate, hand picked for all of us to accept? If not then look at the only Veteran running in this race. Look to the only person that understands Duty and Service.
Mike McPadden is that person, not only can he win the Primary, he will also show Tommy the door in November. Vote Mike McPadden on June 8th!
Ditto to Cardinalcrossing!
I wanted a seperate post to say to SC..the winner will likely win with 30-35%.
Think about it…
Candidate #2 23%
Candidate #3 19%
Candidate #4 10%
Candidate #5 9%
Candidate #6 7%
Candidate #7 2%
That leaves 30% for the winner….play with the numbers a little and you might see the winner garner 35%…but I am not thinking he/she will garner that. (ha ha, what are the chances it will a ‘she’ that wins but in my usual PC awareness and concern, I will use the wording anyway.)
That seems to to a totally plausible election result.
Hurt is the only candidate that if he wins, will have 70% or so of the vote going “against him” …since he has always been identified by everyone as the front runner, the one to beat, etc….and the others have run at least partially against him…then votes for others must be viewed as being against him….there is also great question as whether many who supported others will cast a vote for Hurt in the general election.
On the other hand…if McP or Boyd (for example) wins the primary (even at 30-35%)..that will not be the case at all, and essentially every conservative will jump behind him. For most conservatives in the district this race, from day one has been a field of 6 candidates not 7.
This has a large part to do with why I have never supported Robert Hurt, fair and just or not….he carries baggage as it relates to conservatives (absolutely essential to a Republican win) to November that the others simply do not carry.
Kelley Robert Hurt might want my vote in general election but it won’t happen. He hasn’t done anything to show me any reason to give it to him.
Very good point Tarheel.Why is this so hard for the Hurt supporters to see this ? I understand why Tucker is so blind he mostly likely has been promised a job but the others are supporting a man that if he wins the primary will have to start working hard to bring the GOP base together not to mention the Tea party groups.Any of the other candidates can start on June 9th with the FULL support of the GOP and the Tea party. I am a McPadden supporter but if any of the other candidates win the primary I will work hard for them unless Hurt wins then I will work hard for a indy or not vote at all.
Mcpadden is smart enough, and articulate enough to stand on the stage with Perriello and argue conservative values and ideals, that he so obviously genuinely believes and then go to Washington and stand up for those values.
To me, he is a breath of fresh air in a rancorous political environment that does not have much of that today.
I also think that McPadden has in fact, contrary to SSC’s OP, done some really great things recently. His radio commercials are positive, and issue related…not personal attacks on other candidates. He tells us what he is going to do when he gets to DC…and I like a lot of what he says.
There’s a McPadden attack site too? Is it basically the same thing as the roberthurt.net site?
Yes, from what I have been told…
so obviously…whomever is doing it thinks they have something to fear from McP too.
I think the phone number that SSC posted that is related to the attacks originates from the south hill area.
Kelly, are you suggesting that someone knows who is doing this, but is not saying anything? Who might that be?
I think if proof was in fact available it would be shouted from the rooftops. I am fairly certian that if Bruce knew for a fact he would tell us who it is.
The McPadden attack sites look an awful lot like the Ken Cuccinelli attack sites set up in 2009 during the Brownlee primary… if I had to bet, that’s where I’d start digging.
Nevertheless, it really doesn’t seem to be impacting the race at all. Six days to go, folks…
Will — I confess. I am a lurker on this and many other Fifth Dist. blogs. I have read many of your posts. Why is nearly every one anti-Tucker, anti-Hurt, anti-Kelley, or self-important? You can’t lift you candidate while wallowing in the mud — it gets too slippery . . .back to my lurking spot.
Has anyone received a robo call from a group called VA05 Teaparty Group slandering Robert Hurt. It sounds a lot like McKelvey’s voice. Can anyone enlighten me who this group is?
Tarheel: I really don’t think that the bottom 3 candidates are going to split 18% between them. If I had to guess, they’d split 5% between them.
About the websites, I agree with Shaun; they aren’t going to matter one iota. I googled Mike McPadden and Robert Hurt just now. The attack sites don’t show up in the top 10 pages of results. So they’ll go “viral” among the people who are plugged in to the political scene, but your average voter isn’t going to see them.
Donna: My father got that yesterday, he thought it was funny and hung up. No help on figuring out who it was.
@ Republurker: I don’t speak for Will but saw your questions. “Why is nearly every one anti-Tucker, anti-Hurt, anti-Kelley, or self-important?” America is changing folks are waking up and finding truths. Our Government has grown so large and yet it continues to fail us. The established politicians are the cause of this. Tucker and Hurt are the establishment, they setup this primary and encouraged one & all to run for Congress. As for Kelley in Virginia, she is an avid, loyal Hurt supporter, I respect her opinion but disagree with her concerning our best choice for Congress here in the 5th.
@ Donna: I’ve heard of a few different Robo-calls from the so-called VA05 tea party group. As far as I know, no Tea Party group in the 5th District is behind these calls. Whoever is paying for this is misleading the Citizens of the 5th.
Politics…
Im not anti Kelley.I don’t like her candidate but im sure she is a nice lady.This race is very important to me I want Perriello gone in my opinion Hurt has the least chance of getting that done.As far as being anti Tucker im guilty as hell of that one and damn proud to be.If you know Tucker I don’t need to explain the many reasons why to you.Im a McPadden supporter the fact that he is a navy veteran along with many other reasons make me very proud to support Mike.
If 70% are against Hurt- not a number I believe- it really argues for a runoff election where someone has to get 50%
“Yep, the winner is going to get around 40 to 55% of the vote.”
Hmmm, with 4 competitive candidates I would be a bit surprised if the winner got more than 40%.
Regarding the bottom 3, I’d say they will get around 10%.
I invite all to view the videos of the dueling Mc’s on the following website:
http://virginiafifthwatchdog.com/2010/06/mcpadden-vs-mckelvey-videos/
If you are on the fence about these 2 candidates, I think you will see which one has the best command of the constitution and who is not afraid to make unpopular decisions.
My early guess at the numbers:
Candidate #1 41%
Candidate #2 24%
Candidate #3 18%
Candidate #4 9%
Candidate #5 4%
Candidate #6 3%
Candidate #7 1%
I’ll omit who I think is who for now. 🙂
Manchen: I completely agree. And hey, a convention would have given us a clear winner!
So if you think the bottom 3 only get 10% instead of the 18% I guessed…where would guess that the other 10% go…..I say if you are right….that 10% will split somehow between McP, McK, and Boyd…so Hurt is still hurtin’…pun intended…LOL
I will stand by my prediction that the winner will get between 30 and 35% of the vote.
With 4 competitive (all getting double digit 15%+ ) candidates (McP, McK, Boyd and Hurt) there is no way that I see one of them getting anywhere near 40%…..if I am wrong, I will admit it of course…but I am not expecting to have to do that.
By the way I’ll explain my 18% bottom 3 prediction, I said play with the numbers and maybe the winner gets 35%…I was referring to playing with in my bottom 3.
..Morton, Verga and Ferrin are my bottom 3…with Ferrin last…
Morton for some reason unbeknown to rational people, still has support….I do not think it is out of the realm of possibility that she get 8-9%…and Verga could get 5-7…Ferrin will be lucky to get 2%.
I just went and voted absentee since I’ll be up in Lexington on game day. Talking to the assistant registrar here in Martinsville, a staunch Republican, she said we’d be lucky to get 6% turnout. Chew on that one for a little bit.
Tarheel I think you are right it will be a close race.In my opinion McPadden will get around 25% with McKelvey being around 22% and the elites will give Hurt 18% Boyd will get around 11% the others will be in the single digits.This is just my opinion which is a little biased.
Will, I will have disagree a little with you…only a little though…
I think this race is between McPadden and Hurt…Mckelvey will be in third, IMO…
If McP wins the Primary….McK will support him in the general…conservatives will jump on the McPadden ship and he will sail it to victory the general….
If Hurt wins…well we all know what will happen = fractured conservative vote, and Perriello goes back to continue breaking in his congressional office chair…even if some do not want to admit it.
Tarheel: I generally agree with you’re view. The difference between my lower 3 10% and you lower 3 8% goes to McP, McK, and some to Boyd.
My wild but best guess today looks something like this:
30% Hurt
24% McPadden
20% Boyd
16% McKelvey
10% The Others (who watches Lost?)
It may just be wishful thinking, but I actually think Hurt can be beaten. The tea party folks are seriously motivated right now…
SSC, Samuel: You both say it will be a low turn-out (5-6%). How do you think that impacts the outcome? I think it gives the tea party candidates McP/McK a better chance.
Voted absentee today as well.
My prediction is that Hurt will win easily. Hurt will get 40 +
Mc’s wont get above 20% (and that is PUSHING IT)
Rest of the field will split the rest.
I just dont think that either MC has made enough headway/name recognition in the district have a strong impact.
I also think that whoever wins will have a good chance to beat TP.
With a population of 643,497 in the Fifth, and a predicted turn out of 5%, this means that roughly 32,175 voters will turn out. There is no way in this reality that McPadden will get 25% 8,000 votes. He has not gotten into Southside at all, and the Charlottesville area will not carry him that well. McKelvey’s recent campaigning will just turn people off. The Fifth is not kind to negative campaigning. If he can muster 15%, that would be amazing. Basically, Hurt will get anywhere from 40-55%, the Mcs 15-20% a piece, and the rest of the field will get 10-15% combined.
This is the reality of the situation. I respect everyone else’s candidates, but lets get a grip on reality. There are really three tiers in this race, and the Mcs and Boyd aren’t in the top tier.
Stephen, thanks for the question.
It depends on the makeup of the 6%. It could be motivated Tea Party voters, in which case the conventional wisdom is in for a shock. However, I’m inclined to disagree with that assessment at the moment.
Martinsville City (which we’ll just use for an example, since I live here) has a little over 9000 registered voters. 6% of 9000 is 540.
Now, answer me this honestly: are there 540 people who are educated about the candidates in Martinsville? No. At the Southside Republican Women forum a couple of weeks ago, there were maybe 50 people there who weren’t associated with a candidate’s retinue, and some of those were probably from Henry County.
So it comes down to name recognition. These 540 people have probably all voted for Robert Hurt before. They know Robert Hurt. They don’t know Mike McPadden or Jim McKelvey or Ken Boyd. My thinking is that the extremely low turnout gives Robert Hurt another advantage, at least here in Southside. It might create a different result in Albemarle County, where Ken Boyd is more well known.
Since we all seem to be giving projections, I’ll give mine (and I reserve the right to change it later):
Hurt: 43%
Boyd: 22%
McKelvey: 16%
McPadden: 9%
Morton: 6%
Verga: 3%
Ferrin: 1%
That should add up to 100%.
Th. Paine: You overestimate. Only 443,603 are registered voters. At 6% turnout, that gives 26,616 votes. Your point stands though.
I’ll head off a question: why am I rating Boyd so highly? I think we should pay attention to what happened in Alabama yesterday. Alabama had its primaries yesterday, and the race for the GOP Governor’s nomination was incredibly tight. It looked like it was going to be Bradley Byrne and either Tim James or Roy Moore to the runoff. However, people were turned off by negative campaigning between James and Byrne, so they turned to another credible candidate who stayed positive throughout the race – Dr. Robert Bentley, a state house member. He had a geographic base in the Tuscaloosa County area, but wasn’t expected to succeed. Bentley, although trailing in 4th place in the polls, surged on Election Day and appears to have beat out both James and Moore to the runoff. He’s ahead by 208 votes for that runoff spot, so a recount will be pending – but that’s my rationale on rating Boyd so highly. I see him as sort of a Bentley-type character – a credible candidate with a geographic base, who has not gone negative.
Fair assessment. I used the figures of voting population in the district to further illustrate my point. And I agree with rating Boyd highly. Yet I do not believe that this is similar to the Alabama race, just be cause McKelvey has the only on e who has gone negative. Again, fair assessment. Bravo.
I, too, think Boyd will run 2d.
He is well liked in the “north end”, has no blaring negatives & has run a clean campaign.
And really, except for those of us commenting on the blogs/twitter, campaign retinue (good description btw) & just a few voters (4-6%), no one really is paying attention.
But here is what makes me feel that the voters are NOT asleep: when i’ve made calls (for Hurt), I nearly always get this response “if he is running against Perriello, I’ll sure vote for him”.
Six percent voter turnout is the common statistic used for primaries. It will be interesting to see how the turnout will be with everything happening in the world today. More Folks IMHO are watching, getting involved in politics. I feel this primary will have a huge, maybe record turnout this Tuesday. Many folks don’t join the Tea Party but agree in principle with them. They monitor the websites and possibly attend events.
Who will benefit with a record turnout? NOT Hurt!
How about Mike McPadden? Many Tea Party folks support Mike McPadden. He just might help bring this record turnout if his Townhall meetings bring out the new and old voters. I’ve written this before, but the only real poll is on Election Day. Professional Pollsters have predicted even Presidential elections wrong. When you look at the Candidates I still think Mike McPadden is by far the best choice. On many issues Mike McPadden has taught every single other Candidate in this race his working message and it sells, go with the teacher not the students! We need Constitutional restraint, Mike understand that IMHO better than any other Candidate, he is consistent with his principles. I like Mike!
Bruce, can you tell that we are very “into” this primary?
I’m going to guess that Hurt gets 50% or more of the vote. If the turnout is going to be 5% districtwide, then none of these candidates are going to be close to Hurt. Danville and Pittsylvania County are places full of pride for local guys (witness Whitt Clement’s showing in the AG primary in 2001 in these two areas).
Danville/Pittsylvania is going to give Hurt 75% or more. And let’s be honest, none of the other candidates have any real presence in the rural Southside counties…they just don’t have any presence to overcome the local official endorsements that Hurt’s gotten in those tiny counties. Hurt’s going to sweep a lot of those counties with 60% or so. He’ll also do well in Martinsville and Henry, parts of which he used to represent in the House. With those numbers, it’s just impossible to see any other candidates putting together the votes to come close to Hurt. The Southside/rural strength is just too much. My guess is Hurt will finish first, Boyd 2nd, McKelvey a distant 3rd and the rest probably won’t get 15% combined.
All these numbers but the truth is with Hurt’s current record, he has never run against another Conservative Candidate, so now in the Southside folks have a choice, a real choice. Hmm, 75%, I doubt it. With so many Candidates, hmm.
yes, Hurt is going to run well in his home area.
Hurt is a conservative. Look at his pro-life record. His 2d amendment record. His small business record.
Everybody is upset that he voted to balance the state budget as req’d by Virginia Constitution (by raising taxes). This year, the budget was balanced by cutting services & raising fees.
Samuel: Some comments on your prediction…
You have McK getting almost twice as many votes as McP (16% vs 9%). I don’t think this is very likely, as I think McP is clearly the better candidate. Also, you have McP getting only 3% more then Feda, which is even less likely. I agree that Boyd will do well (in top 3).
Kelly, I have said this before…His vote for that tax increase bothers me for more than the fact than it raised taxes. You Hurt supporters are missing the point on our outrage there, IMO.
I am bothered that he told me “this was the toughest and perhaps most difficult vote I have made in the GA”. He said “I thought much about it”.
Here are my problems….why did he get a vote that so tough, difficult and thought about wrong? I do not believe for a second that the senate was going to send home teachers and state troopers, etc…as he contended would have happened if he did not vote for it. I think the dems were bluffing and had he and others not caved…they would have. He blinked….that is not a vote he should be proud of, yet he seems to be….in fact I may have chosen to support him given his overall record, had he said “I blew it”….but the obfuscation and excuses turned me off.
If he is intimidated into a blink by a bluff from GA democrats….how can I expect him to stand up to Nancy Pelosi?
Boyd and McKelvey are fighting for third, and fourth will be right on thirds heels – IMHO.
tarheel: i bet it was a tough vote for him. my delegate, Tommy Wright, said the school teachers were outside with signs in the run-up to that vote just as they were this session.
based on what I see personally, the state budget cuts (so as not to raise taxes) have affected local Constitutional offices & school systems & severely cut Commonwealth Attys’ offices & the state judiciary. So if the GA had not raised taxes years ago, you may have seen the same things.
Is Robert Hurt a tax-raiser? Only you look at that one vote. And that one vote may well have been necessary, sad to say.
tarheel: I am not ignoring your outrage or the outrage of any TEA partier. Most of us are outraged.
This is my take on Sen. Hurt on this issue: he realizes that many think (erroneously) that he is a serial tax raiser because of that one vote. He welcomes the opportunity to talk about this to anyone who wants to ask him. I think he is going to work d*mn hard to dispel this doubt–thru his campaign & thru his votes in Congress.
I have never called him a serial tax raiser…I have called him blinker at the bluff.
I am not a TEA partier….I agree with lots of what they say, but do not consider myself a part of that movement. I did not say you were ignoring the outrage…I said that I thought you misunderstand it, as it relates to Hurt and this particular vote. With all due respect, your two most recent posts indicate that I am right.
Tarheel: thanks for that. My impression is that Sen Hurt’s ears are open, his mind is open–both to better understand how he can better serve the district.
we know d*mn well that Perriello’s open mind extends only to Pelosi & the unions.
Kelley Any of the candidates except Hurt can start on June 9th fighting Perriello and the Democrat machine.Hurt will have to start June 9th trying to bring the Republican base together which won’t be easy along with the Tea party which will be very hard to do.Tis is a fact.Why is this so hard for you to see ?
will, are there those dissatisfied with Robert Hurt? sure. are more people dissatisfied with the other candidates? probably.
Will, Robert Hurt can bring these people together. There will be a few that will hold out to possibly facilitate a Perriello re-election.
Kelley Im glad we can agree that Hurt will never bring everyone together.Look I want Perriello gone as bad as you but Hurt hasn’t shown me any reason to support him in my opinion we need someone who can stand up to Pelosi. Robert Hurt hasn’t shown me he can do that.Also without the full support of the GOP and the Tea party Hurt can’t beat Perriello. Virgil Goode only lost by 727 votes with the full support of the GOP and we didn’t even have a Tea party.
will you are wrong.
What am I wrong about Kelley ?
the easy answer is “everything.”
Hurt can bring people together if they want to come together. If they want to stand out there & get Perriello re-elected, then Hurt might not be able to bring them “home.”
Kelley —
Isn’t that a bit of a cop-out though? It’s entirely incumbent upon the winner to bring whatever coalition for victory they feel is necessary to beat Perriello together.
Should Tea Party activists, libertarians, pro-lifers, evangelicals, Catholics, or any other part of the coalition be necessary, I’m sure any campaign with a modicum of sophistication would reach out.
It is certainly *not* the duty of any of those groups to simply rally ’round the standard just to beat Perriello. Any decent campaign must make two cases — why to fire the incumbent, and why the electorate should hire the challenger. That case must be made to every part of the coalition required for victory.
Our job is to listen. And if we like it, vote. And if we really like it, support. But that is entirely up to the candidate to make the case, and not for the party or a campaign to ease back into a lazy intellectualism and just expect support. It must be earned.
My US$0.02.
Kelley we have a Tea party now. Who do you think most of those people are ? Republicans that are fed up with politics as usual.I could be wrong but I don’t see them as you say coming home.The home is part of the reason we have Perriello now.If Hurt wins the primary I will make a statement vote this fall.
Will —
Let me ask you this: What pledge or promise to carry one piece of legislation could Hurt (hypothetically — should he win next Tuesday) make to you that would convince you and others to support him in November?
What case would he have to make if it were you, Hurt, and a cup of coffee?
Shaun first of all it is not just me it is ALOT of my family and friends that have worked hard for years to get Republicans elected and what we ended up with is a RINO.Hurt would have to assure me that he would grow some balls so that if he went to WDC he could stand up to the Democrats that WILL be in control.Hurt has shown me in the past he wasn’t able to do this.He would also have to explain to me why he voted to give same sex couples the same rights as domestic partners have.He would have to explain to me why he voted to give the government the right to give girls a vaccine for sexually transmitted disease without the parents consent.Thank GOD that one was defeated.Hurt would have a hard time getting me on board and Im no fan of Perriello at all.But before Hurt starts doing this he has to win the primary.
So to recap, Hurt will have to make the following promises in order to get the support of your sphere of influence (and some Tea Partiers as well):
1. Grow some balls.
2. No rights for same sex partners.
3. No mandated HPV vaccine.
Personally I’d like to hear more about taxes, but that’s just me.
Shuan how did I miss the tax thing ? He would also have to promise not to give Tucker any kind of job. So all he has to do is win the primary and then he has the very big job of convincing ALOT of people he isn’t a Donkey in a elephant suit.
@WillWhite
The opposition you have to Hurt has been oversimplified, in my opinion.
To address the issue of rights to homosexual couples, Hurt voted for a bill that would allow businesses to have the option of putting anyone they choose on their health insurance plan. This means that a business could put an employees mother or father, cousin, et al, onto their plan; it did NOT mandate that businesses must do so. This is a small-government mindset, so that businesses may do what they please with their insurance plans.
As far as the HPV issue goes, he had the chance to vote on it three times. The first time was to send the legislation from committee to the House Floor. He voted to send the legislation to the floor. This does NOT mean that he voted for it; he just wanted to get it out of committee. his other two votes were “no” votes in the House, and then again in the Senate when he was elected later on.
Finally, I do not believe that Tucker is even a factor in the Hurt camp right now, nor will he in foreseeable future.
Shaun Kenney: Correct you are, Robert Hurt will have to convince the voters that he is the right one to send to Congress. Yes, it is incumbent on him to earn the voters trust. I didn’t mean to imply anything different.
Robert Hurt has enough sense to know this.
KIV — I know he does. I just hope others are equally sincere in considering Hurt to be something other than a boogeyman.
Ah, check it out. Someone else doesn’t want Hurt to win:
http://dccc.org/newsroom/entry/its_high_time_robert_hurt_started_telling_the_truth_about_increasing_taxes
Shaun: yep, I’ve lost many a primary/convention & moved forward to beat who I thought was the real bad guy. So special thanks for your words. I think most people will feel as you do as time goes on.
yep, STephen: today the Dems stand with 6 Republican candidates attacking Hurt. Politics does make for strange bedfellows.
Hurt can handle it.
I got my first McKelvey mailer today attacking Hurt. I thought it was affective, until the part where he says, “…I believe that I am the only true Conservative Republican candidate who can take our fight to Washington…”. It certainly sounds good, but I don’t think it’s true…
Wow Hurt even voted to raise fees on hunting he is worse than I thought he was.Kelley that one time voted just turned into 28 votes adding up to over two billion dollars.I wonder if some of the people that have endorsed Hurt realize this ? Looks like the Swift boater just got Swift boated.
Mike McPadden is so much better than Hurt.
dept of game & fisheries uses the fees to fund alot of their dept. So the fees on hunting are really user fees.
so the people who don’t hunt don’t bear as much of the burden for that state dept.
pro & con for that.
most hunters bitch about it, but understand.
@Will — granted, McPadden is better than Hurt. I’m kinda disappointed he didn’t do a better job getting his message out, because frankly he and I agree on an awful lot of things.
I agree Shaun if he would have he would have a lot more people in his camp.The fact that he is a Navy veteran means alot to me.
Im going to see if Mike has time to send out a mailer to hunters letting them know about Hurt’s vote to raise hunting fees my bet is most of them won’t like it very much.
@ Shaun; I may be wrong in my assumption, but aren’t you kinda saying that we should cast a Hurt vote on June 8? Your tweets and comments here seem to indicate that. If I am right in that understanding…I have to say that I am really confused.
You said “granted, McPadden is better than Hurt. I’m kinda disappointed he didn’t do a better job getting his message out, because frankly he and I agree on an awful lot of things.”
If you really believe that and you vote for Hurt over McPadden…then how can you say that you were true to yourself and/or your values? This is not a personal attack…it is a sincere question.
The purpose of a primary is to allow the electorate to vote for whom they feel is the best candidate…you just said that is not Hurt. So I trust you will not be voting for him.
will: have McP send that mailer right out. Believe it or not, hunters are not stupid “bubbas”; most keep up with laws/regs regarding their sport.
do you think the NOVA legislators in the General Assembly want to allocate tax dollars to anything regarding hunting? nope. so thank goodness the fees help to shore up the Game & Inland Fisheries coffers.
Kelley the VDGIF is the only agency in the state that is self funded. It has been this way for years so what did they need some new Tahoes or did someone in the VDGIF need a raise.
@Tarheel — I will be voting for Feda Morton on June 8th. In November, I will be voting for the GOP nominee. So no — you’re understanding would be incorrect. 🙂
All that having been said, contrasted to Perriello, I could easily pull the lever for any of the six in the GOP primary. And yes, people should march in there on June 8th and vote their consciences. As for myself, I’ve been around long enough to know that what seems and what is are two terribly different things. Especially in politics.
Kelley btw have I ever told you that I LIKE MIKE ?
I stand corrected, its the first time I have been incorrect (and certainly will not be the last)…to be honest…I only looked in one tweet..LOL…I apologize.
So you are convinced that Feda is better than McPadden? May I ask why?
You said any of the 6? Who would you not cast a vote for? Or did you just make a boo boo, too? LOL
*not the first time I have been incorrect.
@Tarheel — Hurt, McK, McP, Verga, Ferrin, Morton… there’s more than six?!?!?!
I’ve known Feda since the mid-1990s. She’s an old friend and a good conservative who asked for my endorsement early. I gladly gave it. I’d still support her.
Of course, I am an RLCVA member… and if you had to pin me down, McPadden probably comes closest to my own personal political beliefs. For instance, I’m no big fan of the marriage amendment either — not the government’s role. And I’m convinced McPadden is 100% pro-life and has a great love for the Constitution.
As for Bobby Hurt, I could vote for him over Perriello. He’s got some bad tax votes… for certain. But I’d hear him out.
You forgot about Boyd.
There are 7.
I understand.
Wow.
I mean… just… wow. How the heck did that slip? It’d be forgivable had I forgotten Ferrin, but Boyd?
So there. *I* stand corrected! By a Tarheel, no less!!!
Shaun so you agree with the exception of Hurt any of the other candidates would have 99.5% of the GOP behind them on June 9th along with the Tea party.So if Hurt wins he starts off behind where any of the other candidates would be.I have been saying this for a long time.
@Shaun: Boyd, yo!
@Will — Absolutely not. I think some candidates can better stitch together a coalition to win than others, but some candidates will have a lot more explaining to do.
The question is: Can (insert candidate here) forge a coalition that can beat Tom Perriello?
Hurt can… but he’ll have to explain his tax votes.
Morton can… but she’ll have to up her name ID in the district (before Perriello does it for her).
McPadden can… but will have issues with SoCos.
McKelvey can… but will have issues with rank-and-file Republicans.
Boyd can… but will have to reintroduce himself to much of the district.
Ferrin might… but he will have to convince the pro-liberty arm of the party he’s not a radical.
Verga might… but he’ll have to introduce himself wholesale too.
The other kicker to all of this is name ID. Define or be defined… Hurt and Boyd don’t have to worry about this as much as the rest of the field. So naturally, all this coalition forging isn’t happening in a vacuum. Perriello plus a hostile MSM *plus* a suspicious GOP electorate spells trouble in the short term.
Not insurmountable, though. But when June 9th comes around and the MSM and Perriello start dropping bombs, don’t let it hit your intellect. Be smarter than the knuckle-dragging teabagger stereotype they believe us to be… and hear out whomever wins.
@YodRan —
Yes Boyd… mea culpa!!! Not the one I should have missed. 🙁
@SK
The question is: Can (insert candidate here) forge a coalition that can beat Tom Perriello?
Hurt can’t… Jeff Clark will ensure that if he can just get 3% of the vote, and he might be able to get 10% if he has the fire in him like he has now (3000 signatures and ready to file). Why do you think the Democrats are pushing out the vote for Hurt?
Morton can’t… it would be a crucifixion (see family values, plagiarism).
McKelvey can’t… (removed by BruceH – I want proof of what you wrote before I let it stand here)
So pick from the others the one you feel has the best shot at beating Perriello, but these three will be easy picking for a man with a 2 million dollar war chest like Tom Perriello.
Editor’s Note: Allegations regarding a candidate’s personal life are not welcome here. If you’ve got facts, present them.
Kelley wrote “Everybody is upset that he voted to balance the state budget as req’d by Virginia Constitution (by raising taxes). This year, the budget was balanced by cutting services & raising fees.”
The story keeps spinning! Balanced budget? Our Commonwealth requires every budget to be balanced? Why was that one difficult to balance? Well, Mark Warner wanted to expand Government, Hurt blinked (as Tarheel states) and taxes went up in every sector. I must include fees because every time I turned towards our State Government, license costs, registrations, and permits had risen substantially. Lots of Virginians saw government costs rise with little to no effect.
To top this off, the following year the Commonwealth enjoyed the largest surplus in Virginia History. In fact many experts had predicted the surplus before Hurt voted with Mark Warner and the Democrats. To say Hurt Blinked is being way to kind. With hindsight, Hurt still doesn’t get it and Kelley I’m sure your blinders fit very well; for I believe you will never truly understand a group of us that are fed up with growing governments.
Cuts to Government always brings shouts and protests, heck I bet they were Union that protested the GA. hmmm
Hurt would have to work on building his base just as John McCain did, BTW how did that turn out?
Shifflett: this will be a tough race no matter who wins Tuesday.
Though I think Robert Hurt has the best shot at Perriello, anyone that wants to beat Perriello will have to campaign like crazy to do it.
I still don’t see the activity necessary for anyone to beat Hurt in the primary. All I hear are vague generalities, but I don’t see the activity on the ground to actually defeat someone with so many advantages. Here’s just one tiny example (of many) that he has in this primary. Hurt is probably one of the two or three most popular legislators with the law enforcement community in the Commonwealth. Those Sheriff’s offices, Commonwealth’s Attorney offices and police departments vote, and Hurt’s going to get the lion’s share of those next Tuesday.
As for the general…My guess is that Mr. Periello will be re-elected in one of the greatest political upsets in Virginia history. Who could ever believe he could vote for the stimulus, health care and cap and trade and still be re-elected? All while being a huge backer of the President…..
I think Clark will go indy and will get 2 or 3%. I think Periello will have a money advantage of two to one or greater. I also believe that Periello is going to carry C’ville/Albemarle by a gigantic margin…Hurt’s a nice guy, but he’s not going to win a lot of votes in that area. I honestly believe this is going to come down to the African-American vote in two ways: 1. Can Periello generate the black turnout anywhere near 2008? and 2. Hurt is actually semi-popular with black voters in Danville/Pittsylvania County. Not to say he wins a majority of that vote in his campaigns, but he does better than your average Republican b/c he’s been very responsive to them as a Delegate and Senator. Looking at the numbers, I really believe that Periello received 96 to 97 percent of the black vote in 2008. If Hurt were to win 8-10 percent of the black vote, he may squeak it out even with Clark in….Though if I’m a betting man, I’m putting money on Periello returning for a second term.
Dalton:
alot of your post is dead on. Hurt has worked alot harder during this campaign. Oh, let Will White & the others scream, but Robert Hurt has been to at least 2 or more events to every one that the others have attended. Some of this is due to the fact that he is (oh horrors) an elected Senator so he is invited to many more events. The other reason is that he started with a professional campaign staff from day one. They know how to do this.
Beating Perriello will not be easy. And if the people of the 5th think Obamacare, stimulus & cap ‘n trade are grand, then I just might give up.
and though I was a Cong Goode supporter, Sen Hurt “comes at you” a little differently. He is younger & that might resonate better with C-ville/Albemarle which is more “hip” than say, Ontario (Va). That matters to alot of people–maybe not to us.
I didn’t know Ted Dalton, but thought alot of Gov. John.
Or possibly a wave of voters in record number turn out to vote on Tuesday to restore Liberty. Mike McPadden then Wins in November! Clark isn’t a factor, never really was.
Kelley,
You’re right about the primary. The other candidates seem to be talking to the same small group of people. They can’t generate crowds of their own, and they certainly aren’t invited to a lot of non-ideological groups. I’m not criticizing the other candidates, I’m just stating a reality. Hurt’s been going to all sorts of Rotary, Ruritan, Chamber of Commerce, etc. functions. The others are really struggling to speak to anyone outside of true believers or engaging in the folly of going door-to-door. That’s just ridiculous in a district as large and rural as the Fifth where turnout is going to be 5% or so. It’s been said a thousand times, but I’ll say it once more….perhaps a Boyd or McPadden or McKelvey could beat Hurt, but the dynamics of a 2 or 3 person primary is so different from a 7 candidate primary. In a two man race, it’s easy to paint a conservative v. moderate metanarrative. Instead, this race has turned into Hurt suring up the Southside and elected officials and Chamber of Commerce and law enforcement communities while the others battle with each other over who is “more conservative” or “the true alternative to Hurt.” I’m not an expert at this, but that’s how I see it.
Reply: Circle gets the square and the win. You are correct, sir.
Drooling Elmo Shifflett: I just read your post that says McKelvey… (edited by BruceH)
Editor’s note: He may have posted it, but I removed it until I get proof. SouthsideCentral isn’t going to be a place for character allegations.
If you live in Franklin, check your mailbox.
It’s from the Eagle 527, postmark is Illinois
Do you mean “Eagle Forum”? Give me more information, please.
I only gave Ted Dalton 8 stars out of 10, I think he just missed the target.
“The others are really struggling to speak to anyone outside of true believers or engaging in the folly of going door-to-door. That’s just ridiculous in a district as large and rural as the Fifth where turnout is going to be 5% or so.”
I disagree with the idea that going door-to-door is ridiculous. Going door-to-door, if you have a good list, can be a very good tool, because people talk about who came to their door. In an election that is such low turnout, if you have folks going door-to-door for you in several different localities and you can create a turnout operation based on that door-to-door, that’s the stuff upsets are made of. We’re talking about percentages a lot, but I think we should also be thinking about raw votes. Votes are votes, no matter where they come from.
I do agree that a candidate has better stuff to do with his/her time than traipse across a rural county going door-to-door, but in the more suburban areas of the district, this could be a very good tool.
The rest of the post was spot on.
Door to door is good for targeted areas OR good to introduce a candidate to an area.
for example, targeted areas could be knocked this weekend for GOTV. And once our nominee is elected to Congress in November, he/she might benefit from a few weekends of door knocking across the district (with a few pictures in the local papers) to retain voter confidence for the next election.
Kelley so are you saying that Hurt has been to each county unit meetings ?
Plus, going door-to-door is cheap. No big money ad buys. For a lot of the less well-funded candidates, it’s a good tactic.
will, i don’t know which unit meetings RH has attended. Since he announced in October, our particular unit has had 2 meetings (or maybe just one actually). our mass meeting was same night as Pittsylvania mass meeting, so he attended that one.
we look forward to having him this summer.
Kelley why would he visit this summer he isn’t your state rep ?
Kelley I was told that Hurt hadn’t even been to several of the unit meetings even one time.
will, i don’t know how many units Hurt visited. No, he is not my state Senator, Frank Ruff is.
I have never seen RH at our Republican Meetings in Nelson Co. We have had other Candidates attend our meetings and make their presentation. Not Hurt! I have not heard of him appearing anywhere in Nelson County. Others have shared their belief that RH has been a lazy campaigner. Well if RH hasn’t even been to the Republican Committees of the 5th District, what is he doing? Doesn’t he think the Republican Committees are worth while to visit? Does RH think we Committee Members are not primary voters? I’ve met with many State-wide Candidates at the Nelson Country Committee Meetings, I guess Hurt is just to busy raising money to bother.
I have heard he only visits with the elites of the GOP.You know the ones that want to make the Republican party into a private club.
Hurt has been to Halifax unit meeting twice, once was all by himself right after he announced…he was asked some tough questions by the audience and did not sell well…he cam back the second time for a forum and was outdone by McPadden and Boyd, IMO.
I am concerned that the democrat national congressional committee seems to be posturing to run Perriello the the RIGHT of Hurt on taxes….wow….and it seems they are already making headway in that regard. P ran as a moderate last time, and will do so again…even though his voting record is radically liberal…if we nominate a candidate that he can even appear to legitimately run to the right of on taxes..we are done. Period.
McPadden for congress!
Should Hurt be the nominee, that is precisely what Perriello will do — run as a centrist and slam Hurt on taxes, drive down voter enthusiasm, and run negative so hard that it pushes out independents and boils down to core supporters…
Not a bad play by Perriello. One could imagine variations on the theme regardless of the eventual nominee.
I do not see how McPadden or even McKelvey’s (gasp, I hate to say that, as I TRULY hope he does not win the nomination) stances on “drastically cutting taxes” could be construed by the donkeys as being to the left of Perriello on taxes.
I also think they would have a hard time pinning Boyd a tax raiser, he has a strong record of taxes/government reduction.
Hurt seems to be not only what they want…but what they NEED to win, IMO.
shaun kenney: I agree that Perriello will try to run as a centrist. Are the lib dems having luck with that anywhere because I just don’t see how in the living h*ll they can get away with that.
assuming Hurt is the nominee, I expect him to frame the debate immediately with cap ‘n trade, stimulus & obamacare. And the horrors of obamacare, both financially & standard of care/medically are continuing to unfold.
Tarheel Halifax county is Tucker’s home.Im sure Hurt has been there.I hope Tucker keeps on bad mouthing other candidates it really helps them when he does it.The other candidates have a big help in Halifax Tucker is working for Hurt.Tucker can you please say something bad about Mike McPadden.
@Tarheel —
They’ll just hit them on something else. If McKelvey, on family values. If McPadden, they’ll treat him like Rand Paul. If Morton, family values. Boyd will have to be a bit trickier, but I would see the centrist card as the best to play.
@kelley —
Let’s keep this much in mind — Perriello is pulling even with Hurt (at least he was awhile back). At the end of the day, Perriello, if he’s smart, will blast the eventual nominee with some high heat. He can afford to do so, and the GOP nominee won’t have a dime to resist. Again, it’s define or be defined… and Hurt’s negatives are already up.
Plus, it’s not like the Dems are quivering in their living rooms. They’re working… quietly… and they’ll be ready to defend this seat. Perriello will have $3 mil in ammo while we’ve spent over $1 mil bashing one another. It’ll get interesting quick.
Will;
Yes, Tucker is a Halifax County Native….and is supporting RH. You are also correct that here is strong support in Halifax County for other candidates as well. I would venture that 1/2 or more of the unit are not supporting Hurt.
shaun: let’s pray that Griffith runs strong against Boucher. the Dems will defend him before they defend Perriello. But hell, how much more money does Perriello need?
I also think you’re going to see a firey (sp) Robert Hurt. Many people say they haven’t seen this side of him, but it is awesome to behold. Patrick Henry goes to Washington.
@ Shaun….
the million in bashing one another is wasted money, IMO….that is the largest reason we should have had a convention in this particular race…I do not always think that conventions are the best way to go in every race…but for this one…I firmly believe it was. The dems are loading this district with cash to hold the seat….they desperately want to hold the seat…and seeing that (we have all known that for a long time) we should have shored up support for our candidate a long time ago…and been raising money for that campaign…not to beat up on each other.
We could have saved ourselves a lot of trouble…had a convention…and been on the path to smack down P.
One word: TAXES.
Hurt has to convince me (and a lot of others) he’s going to cut the size and scope of government. Not sure he’s made that case during the primary, but I hope he intends to make that case should he win on Tuesday.
@Tarheel — could not agree more. Conventions are by far the best way to nominate a candidate.
Tarheel and Shaun I always thought a primary was better because more voices could be heard but not anymore what we have done is spent a lot of cash and divided everyone to a point that in my opinion WILL not be reversed.
Hurt’s lawyers move to stop KcKelvey ads…
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2010/06/bill_clinton_endorses_republic.html
Shaun: I think he (Robert Hurt) knows he must do that. I also think he would welcome any advice you might have on the topic. You have alot of smarts.
After hearing those “Clinton”-McKelvey ads, I’ve confirmed that McKelvey is a waste. There are only two tolerable non-Hurt candidates: Boyd and McPadden. Either would be good, and I’ve already outlined why I like Boyd a bit better at this point.
I urge all McKelvey supporters to give a second look to Boyd or McPadden.
Ah, McKelvey is having a bad day…he’s been endorsed by the “Reverend”.
Well, that settles it then, Stephen. 🙂
I think Hurt is really going to be in for a rough summer due to this primary.
My guess is he’s not going to have much of anything left in the bank once June 8 comes and goes. Mr. Periello is sitting on 2 million in cash in cheap media markets (Roanoke, Danville, Lynchburg and C’ville). Mr. Kenney, you are completely on point: He will have two to three months to define Hurt b/f Hurt can respond in a meaningful way. There are not many campaigns that are won when your opponent has such an open field for so long to attack you.
For those with very long memories, infighting costing the general election is not new to the Fifth District GOP…and it occured in conventions as well. 1988…..should have been a Republican in D.C., but Barker and Arey got into a horrible fight. 1996…a convention fight b/w Landrith and Ruff ended up having a ton of local GOPers covertly support Goode in the fall…there was one fundraiser in Danville that I remember that had all sorts of big Republicans coming out for Goode. Then Landrith held a fundraiser at the Stratford Inn and didn’t even break even.
Here’s a stat for folks to chew on…the GOP has never won the Fifth District in over 100 years without having an incumbent (Goode). The Party has never won this district on its own without a party switcher already in office. That’s a cold, hard fact.
Busy day…new Dem video makes Hurt look pretty bad:
I heard that commercial the other day…and was disgusted. It is by far the worst political commercial (perhaps commercial of any sort) ever!
What reverend is that? (That has endorsed McKelvey)
I have been imploring friends who are McK supporters to reconsider McPadden and several of them have….and changed their allegiance.
I have tried to be really nice, but I know of no other way to say it.
McKelvey is an idiot.
The infamous “Reverend” Solovskoy, of course.
Mr. Dalton,
Let’s make history then. That is our only chance to beat Perriello–no matter who is our nominee.
And for all of you who support candidates other than Hurt: I have walked many, many miles in your shoes. After losing a primary or convention, I went home vowing to “sit this one out”. I never did.
Take a couple of weeks off. Renew your political batteries.
Then go somewhere to talk to Robert Hurt (to an outdoor festival or something–you are all political activists on some level so I know you can find him at an event). Tell him EXACTLY why you were for another candidate. Let him convince you.
It is partly your job to seek him out & have an open mind, & partly his job to convince you.
Perriello is the bad guy here.
A number of my friends have done just what Kelley has suggested, after meeting and speaking with Hurt they moved to the McPadden Campaign. That one tax vote has made a huge difference in many folks minds. RH was just approached less than 2 weeks ago and he squirmed to answer, then suggested it was a difficult vote. If RH had admitted it was a mistake especially with hindsight being 20/20, he would be more respected across the 5th IMHO. After Tuesday the need to talk with Hurt won’t matter!
cardinal, it is not my place, even as a fervent supporter of Hurt to lay blame for that vote. Only Hurt has that authority.
Sure, Hurt cast the vote, but there was much inside baseball. In the end, Hurt got alot for his district in return, but if he explained this fully, some past & present members of the General Assembly would look like total assholes or worse.
but if you don’t like Hurt, you can vote for Perriello. Perriello only voted for Obamacare twice. he didn’t even have the common American decency to vote against it once.
also, Cardinal, I don’t want to start a fuss here with anyone–I don’t want to take potshots at any posters here as Will White sometimes does.
but the debate from the Republican side is going to be framed this way: do you want/like/approve of Porkulus, cap ‘n trade or Obamacare? yes or no.
and I think there is merit to that argument.
“In the end, Hurt got alot for his district in return…”
This statement really bothers me, and is the essence of why I have no interest in Hurt, and it is the fundamental problem with politics in this country today.
I don’t want the government to “get” me anything. I want them to do as little as possible and stay out of my life. McPadden understand this perspective better than anyone.
Kelley, I agree that TP must go, but RH has regretted his vote on the one billion dollar tax increase, he was quoted in the Daily Progress (C-ville) but it was for the wrong reasons which turned so many voters away from RH. Hurt decided to expand government with his jump to the democrats side and voted for the one billion dollar tax increase.
This Nation is in Crisis, financially, National Security wise, and with our Individual Liberties. We need to admit to past failures even within our own ranks and learn from them. When RH loses on Tuesday I hope we can work together to defeat Pelousy’s sidekick we call TP.
but stephen, we all look to the govt, whether we like it or not.
do you want our big naval fleet to be in Norfolk or Florida? do you want UVA to have its satellite campus in Wise or your hometown? I am originally from Blackstone so our issue was whether the National Guard HQ would be at Pickett or Richmond.
and if you read the RTD today, Judge Southall is fighting like a trojan to just get adequate funding to have enough judges in his circuit.
of the above examples, I believe the military & the judiciary are core govt. functions.
Everyone wants Perriello gone but I think the people of the 5th deserve a rep we can trust.Hurt has shown us we can not trust him. I worked yesterday afternoon putting up signs for Mike we had THREE people that had Hurt signs ask us to come take them down and put up signs for Mike.These people changed after the mailer from McKelvey comparing Hurt to Perriello.People lets get it right this time lets send a true conservative to fight Perriello.Perriello will pick Hurt apart on his voting record.Don’t get HURT this Fall vote Mike McPadden in the primary.
Kelley, Of course there are some things it is appropriate for the government to do, and it would be good if we had representatives with a clear view on what these were and stick to it. From a different perspective we need politicians who are able to say “No”, and also to consider not only what’s in the best interest of their district, but for the country, as a whole.
I realize this is a radical shift from where we are today, but on Tuesday we have an opportunity to make a difference. A vote for Hurt is a vote for “politics as usual”, whereas with McPadden, we have our best hope for a new kind of politics.
cardinal: so who do you think will win the primary?
I can only speak for my county (Lunenburg): Hurt will run well here.
the McKelvey mailer upset people around here, too. They sure won’t vote for McKelvey now.
McPadden, the Constitutional scholar.
Glad to see you have come around Kelly.
😉
tarheel: thought most would get the snark.
but really, tarheel: how do you think your county (halifax, right?) will go on Tuesday?
No Kelly, WE don’t look to the gov’t… Democrat’s like you do.
Sorry Kell, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but you, my friend, are not a conservative. It’s okay, almost 50% of the nation thinks the same way, and although really stupid, they seem to be happy in their ignorance.
I don’t care what Hurt has ‘gotten’ us from the gov’t, the fact remains that our taxes are at an unreal level and the size of this gov’t continues to grow with the amount of money they steal from the American people. The ONLY thing I want my elected officials to do for my district? Is cut it’s taxes.
Another thing.. Please stop assuming that because we aren’t voting for RH that this somehow links us to Obamacare and Perriello. It’s an absurd argument and brings your credibility, somehow, even lower than it already is…
The fact remains that RH does not represent me in any way shape or form. I would rather have a liberal in congress than a so-called conservative, who says one thing and does another.
har! jefferson’s va.
do the sheriff’s office/police not patrol your area? does the US military not defend your country? have you or your children ever attended public schools or universities? Has anyone in your family ever sought regress in our courts? have you or anyone in your family ever been on social security, disability, medicare? Do you drive on a state maintained road?
not all of the above are core services, but if you have ever sucked at the govt teat AT ALL (& you must because the sheriff’s office/National Guard/US military protects you whether you like it or not), then you are as guilty as each of us.
this is everybody’s problem.
Okay Kelley, let me sift through this. You’re right, the government is implemented in far too many aspects of our lives. The Government funds far too many programs within the Sheriff’s department. We need to cut the education program entirely, but first provide vouchers to those not willing to send their children to the sorry excuse for schools the government has provided us.
However, you will vote for a representative that has shown NO leadership or initiative in rectifying this problem. Instead he raises taxes, takes away parental rights, and implements rights for same sex couples.
The man I will vote for, will work to cut the size of government and return us to a nation of liberty, not because he thinks speaking out will get him votes, but because this is what he believes. So again, in comparing you and I? More blame falls on you… Sorry.
you are believing opposition ads.
my question: how do you think vote will go in your county?
Lord have mercy, Kelley, sometimes I wonder how you put up with this blather.
So it looks like the opposition to RH comes on three issues (broadly):
1) Taxes
2) Parental Rights
3) Giving Rights To Them Homosexuals
1) Look, nobody likes raising taxes, and I wasn’t here in 2004 for the tax vote (and the McKelvey mailer/DCCC press release is absurd), but as Virginia has to have a balanced budget, and the Governor back then certainly wasn’t going to accept cuts, you might say that he did the fiscally responsible thing. Raising taxes should be a last resort for a Republican lawmaker. I think that RH’s record as the most partisan Republican senator (according to Richmond Sunlight) makes his bona fides clear.
2) I assume this is about the HPV vaccine. Now, yes, HPV is a sexually-transmitted disease, so if your child is a chaste virgin, there’s no chance of infection. And if your chaste virgin child marries another chaste virgin child, your cute couple is never going to have to worry about STDs of any sort. However, let’s assume that the Church is actually doing its job and converting young men around the age of 20 (among other people). What happens if your chaste virgin child falls in ruv with one of these new guys, who as it turns out, is a carrier for HPV from his past life? Coupled with the fact that most chaste virgin children actually aren’t (true fact, and you know it) – quit being obstinate and get the dadgum vaccine! Do you object to the MMR vaccine and polio and whatever else we inject kids with? They’re all public health issues.
3) See Th. Paine on June 3 @ 1:29 PM. I haven’t yet figured out what the fascination with gays in some circles of the GOP is all about; maybe one day it will all become clear to me. Suffice it to say that they’re people too.
PS: I didn’t vote for Robert Hurt.
I will now be run out of the GOP in 3, 2, 1…
Samuel —
Taxes are going to be my #1 issue of concern. We have enough Republicans who go up to Washington and “do the right thing” when it comes to any issue the Democrats want.
Hurt will have to show me he’s serious about reducing the size and scope of government. It’ll be the difference between activism and mere support (should he win this Tuesday, of course).
samuel: he didn’t vote for the HPV vaccine on the floor: only to get it out of committee. vast difference.
shaun: the only thing I can suggest is that you get with the campaign & ask to have a chat. The district is so huge, maybe you can ride along to events for a day or two. I feel like you would get your answer.
Samuel.
1. If that answer will make you feel better… okay
2. Wow, you kinda wasted your time there didn’t you. I completely understand the HPV vaccine, a lot more than you do, seeing as I’m a women, but thank you for your cute little lesson. The fact remains that as a parent in this constitutional republic we live in, I have to the right to inject and refuse to inject my children with vaccines if I so choose. The moment you take that away from me, is the moment you decide to jump down an incredibly slippery slope. Can my 16 year old daughter have an abortion without my consent? Can my 13 year old child get married without my consent? Not right now. But 2 years ago the government couldn’t inject my children with anything they chose without my consent. Stay away from my liberties, you obviously can’t be trusted with them.
3. It’s not the homosexuals I have a problem with. It’s that Hurt continues to be for a Federal Marriage Amendment (A terrible idea in my opinion) and then votes for something like this… I’m not a huge fan of hypocrisy, especially in my elected officials.
@kelley — I’m sure I’ll get some face time during the Unity Tour and such. Of course, Hurt would have better things to do than soothe this malcontent. 🙂
…and totally agree that there is a HUGE difference between getting something out of committee and voting for it on the floor. Sometimes, you WANT that up-or-down recorded vote!
no, Shaun, you have an audience so that makes you a bigger fish than the average person–sad to say (& wait for the response that RH is “establishment” or “arrogant”from this comment).
HUrt supports the federal marriage amendment – so saying that our opposition to him has to do with him “not hating gays” is stupid, as according to your rhetoric he must hate them too.
I am opposed to him in the primary because,
1. As i said before, he AND OTHERS (who are not running, so Bruce you can stop interjecting them in to the discussion as cover for Hurt), so called fiscal conservatives blinked at a GA bluff as it related to a HUGE tax increase under the threat to shut down the govt if he did not cave…I know the law requires a balanced budget and had they not balanced it, that would ‘shut down the govt.’…..but I contend that the liberals desired that end any more than conservatives did. They bluffed…he blinked….NOW he regrets it….but refuses to admit it was a mistake or even apologize for it. That blink (even if it was just once, it was a huge one) has to factor into my decsion as to whom to vote for.
2. He carries baggage into the general that others do not. As already demonstrated TP will run to the right of him on taxes…how is that possible? WOW. Independents, absolutely essential to a republican win will call the tax issue a draw between the two (TP and RH) and that leaves other issues by which they will form their decision…and those issues are not always favorable to republicans.
Another peice of baggage he carries is the heated primary in which 6 other republicans ran ‘against him’ claiming that they were all more conservative than he…several of us who supported other candidates have said that they will not support RH in the general…not to mention that a 3rd party candidate will run if he wins…. in an environment where we MUST have EVERY vote we can possibly get…I am not willing to throw away even 5% of the vote. (I think it reasonable that Clark, combined with disgruntled republicans who refuse to vote for him could reach that mark)
I truly feel that given these and other reasons …RH is just simply the most unwise choice we can make on Tuesday.
I have bought into the following philosipy as it relates to June 8. I hope others will consider it as well.
Our campaign has a few core principles that we will never compromise on, and they are;
From the Mcpaddenforcongress.com website ;
* Our vision is liberty.
* Our philosophy is the Declaration of Independence.
* And our model for government is the Constitution.
For more details on his positions look here;
http://mcpaddenforcongress.com/issues/
Fm Kelley, “cardinal: so who do you think will win the primary?”
Kelley I thought you were a lawyer or worked within the legal field? You really want me, ME to answer your question? LOL
I do like to clarify that I have attended many functions whereby some or all the Candidates spoke. I’ve spoke with most of the Candidates or someone within their Campaign. I’ve read from their websites and watched the media spin. Now that I have heard from all the other Candidates, watched them copy many key issue points from Mike; yes even RH started to sound like a Constitutional scholar at the last Lynchburg Tea Party Meeting.
Mike McPadden has a very good chance to win on Tuesday and when his campaign was just getting started I wasn’t sure about that. Mike didn’t have support from the 5th District GOP, RPV or NRCC. Mike didn’t have a Political Machine like others had. Mike didn’t even have a campaign office, he was using his home. Now they have a Campaign Staff in a real office (nicer than Cong. Stan Parris’s last Campaign office) Mike has lots of Great Volunteers that work very well together. Best yet, we keep growing, new Volunteers show up all the time! In fact Philip Day the McPadden’s Campaign Headquarters Director just told me “there is no problem finding Volunteers”. I hear RH pays 10 bucks an hour to put up signs? Hmmm
I think Mike will Win on Tuesday!
glad McP has lots of volunteers & glad he has nice campaign office. and Cardinal, of course I want your perspective. Do you think McP will take your county? yes or no. and you will have to state which county.
Hurt is not paying people to put up signs. good grief. if so, he owes me a pile of money.
I think Hurt will carry Lunenburg, my county.
As far as “baggage” goes, it is the stuff you don’t know about yet that is potentially disastrous. I’m glad that the other six candidates are running, I have met some of them, and they seem sincere to help place our country on the correct path again. Yet, as demonstrated with at least one campaign, skeletons in the closet come back and bite you in the ass. Just think about this long and hard. What DONT you know about your respective candidates? If discovered later on, they will fail in November. Remember, no one is perfect.
Even though his experience is cast in a negative light of being “the establishment” and a “career” politician, he is already vetted by the fact he has been elected to office before. The members of his Senate and House districts know this.
Also, his only big skeleton seems to be the tax vote in 2003. Hurt has been re-elected three times since then, and has not increased taxes since then.
What I am basically saying is that if Hurt is elected, the strategy in November is clear. Yet if someone else wins, personal issues are an uncontrolled variable.
Support your candidates on the 8th. Volunteer and work for them. I know that no one is ever swayed by what anyone else says on these forums; I wish other knew this as well.
Just keep an open mind on June 9th. Internal fractures, and yes, alot of them have been created here, online, will keep us away from the end goal: reclaiming the Fifth.
@Kelley, I think Nelson County will go McPadden with Boyd and Hurt in that order.
I did hear RH was paying for signs to be setup and it came from a Hurt Supporter putting up signs! Nice young Man I might add. A true capitalist, he told me he heard TP was paying 15 bucks an hour putting up signs.
Kelley we should meet some time, you can kick me then! :^)
I’m a little bit more coherent now (I’m never entirely coherent), I apologize for all unclear/misunderstood remarks.
1) Yeah, that was the best I could do without knowing the inside baseball surrounding the vote and not being here for the discussion. I do think RH’s status of most partisan GOP senator should say something about whether tax-raising is a habit for him. As I said, though, I didn’t vote for the man.
2) Slippery slope = invalid argument; forced abortions =/= forced vaccinations. But don’t mind me, I’ll not be attempting to infringe on anyone’s liberties anytime soon. The point is, I don’t see the big deal; feel free to call me naive, but the good guys are winning the culture war on abortion, as in more and more people my age think abortion is a bad idea.
3) Now unless I’m mistaken, I didn’t say anyone here hated gays. (There are some people in the GOP that do, but I didn’t accuse anyone here of that.) I’m sure RH doesn’t hate gays; being in favor of an FMA doesn’t mean you hate gays. There’s plenty of room on the spectrum for different policies regarding gays, so it’s not hypocrisy to support an FMA, oppose civil unions, and yet support this insurance bill. It’s simply not accurate to call him hypocritical on the issue.
As far as the fascination comment, I read somewhere that Bob McDonnell was leading the charge for the “homosexual agenda” because he signed that Directive a few months back. That’s the sort of nonsense I’m talking about. I have yet to figure out what the “homosexual agenda” is, but I’d like to imagine it involves instituting a fashion police. Whatever it is, Bob McDonnell is not at the forefront of it. There are people out there, however, who are ready to abandon McDonnell because he said that the state won’t fire gays for being gay. In any event, I automatically discount any “he voted to give rights to the gays!” argument because it’s silly, especially in this insurance bill situation.
The point is that basing opposition to a candidate on one vote six or seven years ago, a logical fallacy, and an inaccuracy just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. It makes even less sense to sit out the general election when there’s no question that RH would not have voted like TP did. Some here have made perfect the enemy of good. But that’s just my opinion, disregard as needed.
In other news, is anyone else sick and tired of McKelvey emails?
Seems like we see eye-to-eye, Sam.
TarHeel…………..spoken like a true supporter of McPadden…………what else would we expect you to say?
Here is a link to the Al Gore like move, Radio stations have tight budgets and no room for error. The big “could be a violation” could is a costly word and threatening. On the other hand Robert Hurt is defending Slick Willy, Bill Clinton, hmmm? Check out the full article:
http://www2.godanriver.com/gdr/news/local/danville_news/article/mckelvey_attacks_hurt_over_campaign_ad/21709/#comments
cardinal crossing: thanks for your poll predictions.
I have no idea who will come in 2d in Lunenburg. this same prediction applies to Brunswick (which doesn’t have a big 5thCD vote) & Mecklenburg which does have some population.
I was at afternoon function where person told me that Charlotte should go for Hurt & that Halifax would be closer. but I have no real sense of that.
Whoever wins the election will do so with 30-35% of the vote.
I hope that Mcpadden wins Halifax…..but I have gut feeling that Mckelvey will do well here as well….Boyd will not do bad either….
Hurt will not do as well as expected in HC.
I have been told by one close to the campaign that RH expects 60% of HC vote…I am predicting he will be greatly disappointed.
tarheel: saw man from Halifax today who echoed some of your thoughts. He said both Mc’s would get votes in Halifax. But he said he thought Hurt would win overall.
and a Charlotte man told me that he thought Charlotte would go for Hurt.
I’ve got no feeling on either.
i just want it over with.