UPDATED: Danville City Sheriff’s Race – Update #1

UPDATE #1: I’ve changed some comments below to reflect reading a R&B article about Silas Crews.

Let’s keep the SouthsideCentral election theme going and take a look at the race for Sheriff in the City of Danville…

In a race for a job that a lot of people have no idea what the job entails, we’ve got a strong incumbent and a missing in action challenger. Mike Mondul won his first term in a three-way election back in 2009 and is being challenged by Danville police officer Silas Crews. Let’s start the analysis.

Strengths & Weaknesses:

• Mondul: Mondul has lived up to every campaign promise that he made in 2009. He’s had almost no bad problems or publicity and what little he’s had, he dealt with quickly and firmly. He’s got a strong community presence which has only increased with his first term in office. Mondul is well-known in Danville and carried over his leadership potential from his time working in the Danville police department quite well. Mondul quickly learned how to run an effective campaign in 2009 and has already started a good-sized advertising blitz this year.
• Crews:  Crews is a well-respected Danville police officer but has little name recognition when compared to Mondul. Since the job of sheriff is mostly administrative, Crews has the qualifications to handle the job because he’s worked for the police department for a long time.

Let’s take a look at the Path To Victory for these candidates…

Path To Victory:

• Mondul: Right now, Mondul could safely run his campaign on auto-pilot based on Crews’ inaction. Smartly, he’s gone on the political offensive and has started his advertising quite effectively. If Mondul continues to promote his messages, showcase his first term and continue his visibility, he’s going to lap his opponent multiple times in this race. Mondul shouldn’t have a problem raising what little money he’ll need for campaigning and I’m predicting the usual endorsements will come in.
• Crews: Crews hasn’t even officially declared his campaign to the media and we’re at the two-month warning. (Editor’s Note: One of our commenters pointed out an R&B article about Silas’ campaign.)  Dear God. This article completely destroys what chance that Silas had of ever winning this election. The sheriff’s office doesn’t create jobs. You don’t vote a person into office without discussing any plans you have once you get into the office. This article makes Silas look unqualified for the office. What was he thinking?  Original notes: I’ve seen one sign for him so far on the north side of Danville. That one quickly had a Mondul sign placed right beside it. Oops. Crews will need to tell people who he is and why he deserves the job. He’s also going to need a lot of money to come close to equaling Mondul’s advertising. This is a giant uphill battle to begin with, and the inaction has only put Crews in a deeper hole.

Sadly, I’m going to close out this segment by yet pointing out that elephant in the room. Danville’s black voters are well-known for casting votes for black candidates. That’s sad but it’s the truth that has been conclusively shown in prior election results. Crews will get a sizable number of votes because of that just like Thelbert Childress did in 2009. Mondul did have a decent crossover to the black voters in 2009 and he’ll need to keep that level. That’s the only roadblock to Mondul’s campaign that I can see on the horizon… but I’m not very concerned that it will be a problem on election day.

Final Analysis:

Mondul’s incumbency and experience on the job makes him a strong favorite for re-hire. Although Crews is qualified, he has hasn’t made any moves towards telling voters about his ideas, his qualifications and why he should be considered for the job. Time’s ticking and Crews needs to start that quickly to have any chance of making this race competitive. After reading that R&B article, I consider Silas Crews’ chances of winning this election completely dead. It would take the biggest miracle of all time for him to make this race competitive.

It’s relatively uncommon to have a race that’s so unbalanced at the Labor Day checkpoint in this area. That being said, SouthsideCentral has no problem in declaring this race as “Safe – Mondul” as of now.