We’re going to slide back into the election season as we take a look at a race that has no incumbent.
Incumbent Don Merricks decided to not run for re-election because of the need for him to manage his own business. The Southside region will lose a good and influential legislator, that’s for sure. Les Adams, an attorney from Chatham, took the Republican nomination in a surprisingly easy primary victory after Ken Bowman’s candidacy fell apart. Elizabeth Jones, chairman of the Pittsylvania County Democratic Committee, is also looking to punch her ticket to Richmond. Let’s go to the analysis…
Strengths & Weaknesses:
- Adams: Les Adams appears to be the stereotypical Southside Republican candidate… white guy, in his own business, well-respected in the community. Although he’s a newcomer to politics, he’s picked up the ropes quickly and looks like a well-established candidate. He could have had a tough primary for the nomination but steamrolled to a big win after his opposition imploded. The only weakness that Adams has now is no experience in public office, but neither does his opponent. The name recognition could use some improvement, but that’s standard for a first-time candidate. With no baggage and lots of campaign cash, Adams is looking good for the election.
- Jones: Jones is a relative unknown to most people outside of the inner circles of the local Democratic party. She’s a first-time candidate and her work and educational resume are quite impressive. She’s had a few minor missteps so far on the campaign trial (like saying she’d try to ban uranium mining forever… her opponent quickly jumped on that and said “that’s impossible”), but I’m willing to somewhat overlook mistakes like that made by a first-time candidate. She’s being massacred in the fundraising arena so far, and that’s not a good sign.
Now to the Path To Victory for these candidates…
Path To Victory:
- Adams: Adams is in the driver’s seat so far, starting out well-funded and with a popular Republican incumbent preceding him. The only slight mistake his campaign has had so far is to mock Jones’ request for debates which showed a bit of arrogance. Adams’ campaign manager came off as arrogant there but it’s almost forgotten now. Adams doesn’t need to debate Jones at all. I’m sure that he’s got a strong slate of endorsements coming, so now he’s cruising to the finish line with everything in his favor.
- Jones: Jones’ issues so far have been almost 100% Democratic talking points and her latest idea for a constitutional amendment against uranium mining is dead on arrival for anybody that knows how that process works. Her issues just aren’t going to resonate with the typical voter. The “I’m not them” position is doomed to failure when “them” are quite popular in her voting district. Her one endorsement so far comes a group of Democratic women who endorse anybody that’s a Democrat and a woman. Unless she really gets her name out and makes connection to independent voters, she’s in deep trouble.
Final Analysis:
Exit one popular delegate from Southside, enter someone who is moving right into his footsteps. Exit Don Merricks, enter Les Adams. Jones has to steer clear of the Same Things Democrats Say and make herself somebody that reflects the 16th District to have any semblance of a chance to get back in this race. Jones would have been destroyed in a 1-on-1 race against Don Merricks, and she’s heading for that outcome against Les Adams unless something changes quickly.
Based on everything that is going on in Adams’ favor, SouthsideCentral is currently giving this race a “SAFE – Adams” forecast.
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