We’re bringing back SouthsideCentral’s version on a PTI classic. What are the chances of something happening and why?
For OddsMakers, we don’t use a Big Board. We use the big OddsMakers chalkboard! Let’s see what topics and propositions we have loaded up for us today…
Well, that’s an impressive chalkboard. Let’s get down to the analysis.
First one. The chances of JC Penney closing at the Danville Mall location. That’s not going to happen. Their business is poor, but so is the business of most JC Penney locations. The corporate headquarters has already done some store closings and Danville’s store survived that. Danville Mall has good plans in the works and the new anchor will add a lot of traffic to the mall. ZERO percent chance of JC Penney closing in 2014. ZERO!
Next topic. Hey look, it’s Danville school superintendent Ed Newsome back in the spotlight. Let’s face it, he survived a big threat to his job last week and he’s going to come out of that much stronger. That doesn’t mean he’s invincible though. He knows he’s on a short leash and the wildcards are going to be Steven Gould and Sharon Dones (the incoming new members). rightfully, he should get another year but school boards in this region do weird things at times. I think he’s safe through the end of the year, so it’s an 8% chance that he’ll be sent packing.
Next topic. Yikes. Crime. The Danville police department has done a great job and the murder rate has dropped significantly. Here comes the summer and hot temperatures and tempers. One hothead drug dealer with a gun can put three bodies down at any time, but I don’t think that’s going to happen all at once. I don’t think it’s going to happen individually either. Unfortunately, summer is murder season in Danville. I’m going with a 23% chance that three or more people will get a fatal case of lead poisoning by the end of the year.
Final topic. Ouch. I knew this one would come up. It’s always possible for a new mayor in Danville every two years but it’s very rare for a mayor to lose their position while still on city council. Four years ago, a plot for a new mayor went down in flames spectacularly when SouthsideCentral caught wind of it. That undercurrent of wanting a change at the top is back. Sherman Saunders has disappointed a lot of people with his snippiness at city council meetings. His “tar baby” walking out stunt during Frank Ruff’s speech was downright idiotic. Who’s got the guts to step up and what kind of five-vote coalition can they pull together to make it happen? Is Saunders protected on racial lines? Lots of things have got to happen to get a new Danville mayor and they’ve got to happen in the next six days. I feel the movement is out there, so I’ll say a 39% chance of a new mayor next Tuesday.
Let’s take a final look at the OddsMakers chalkboard…
Nice. This OddsMakers is now 100% over… except for your comments below. More coming up on SouthsideCentral!
Who’s not to say that Newsome may resign b/f the school year begins? You never know. Look at Patrick County that you reported on. Look at the Halifax principal you reported on. I’m not gonna be shocked if some sort of resignation occurs. I bet you there will be some sort of compensation attached to the resignation a la Patrick County…….
I am with you with the exception of the murder deal. Let me just say I think your percentage should be more like 50% that it will happen. Now we wait to see who eats crow. lol
Anyone that I shoot in my neighborhood doesn’t count.
Take it from somebody in a position to know — shooting homicides are in the minority of homicides in Danville. The most common type of homicide is the stabbing. Blunt force trauma also outnumbers shooting by my count.
I’ll be very happy if there aren’t any murders in Danville at all this year, but finishing with less than 3 would be shocking. I’d put the chances at more like 85%.
As far as JCPenney, 0% seems way too optimistic. I tend to agree that Danville’s JCPenney won’t just be closed by the store, but I think it is at least somewhat possible the whole company could go by the end of the year. I’d put that one at 5%.
I’m going to leave the political issues alone.
Bruce is doing his Miss Cleo by predicting the future! Call heem now, e sees all, knows all mon! Operators are not standing by!