Our SouthsideCentral writers have been hard at work over the last few days and I saw them fitting things on a chalkboard.
What are the chances? Yep, it’s OddsMakers! time.
Here’s how this shameless copying of PTI’s feature works. I tell you the chances of something happening and explain my reasoning. Of course, I’m always right and am always going to be right. Quiet, you. Let’s see what four things our crackhead writers have for us today.
Five? Again? Oh, this is horsecrap. But at least the graphic designers made it look better than last time. I won’t mention how the lines bleed into the background. Heh. Well since I’ve got five propositions on the board, let’s get to work.
“An incumbent from the Pittsylvania County Board of Supervisors will lose their reelection bid in November” – Well, that’s a way to start. Jerry Hagerman, James Snead and Tim Barber have opposition this time. I know nothing about Vernon Moon (Hagerman’s opponent) yet. I’ve met Joe Davis (running against James Snead) and I’m impressed with him so far. I’m good friends with Gracie Mays (Tim Barber’s challenger) and I know she’s going to run a good campaign. Three opportunities for incumbents to lose and I never would have thought was a possibility one year ago. Jerry Hagerman surprised me four years ago by knocking off Fred Ingram and I have a good feeling that at least one incumbent won’t be heading back to Chatham every two weeks again. I’m not who or how many yet, but I say there’s a 61% chance of that happening. NEXT!
“An incumbent from the Halifax County Board of Supervisors will lose their reelection bid in November” – Our writers are good at making one thing lead to another. Here we’ve got a very unpopular Board of Supervisors. We’ve also got a popular Board of Supervisors if you think one of the divided sides is absolutely right on their stance in the 4.5 month stalemate. J.T. Davis is being challenged by Jeaneen Abbott, the daughter of the late Dickie Abbott. Barry Bank has Joseph Rogers as an opponent. Both of these challengers start out with 40% of the vote by simply pointing at the incumbent and saying “Hey, I’m not him!”. Abbott would seem to have an advantage with her father’s legacy, but her father’s legacy was obstructionism, being stubborn and a “NO” vote on pretty much everything. Of course, that legacy didn’t stop Dickie Abbott for being reelected for 714 years. Rogers could knock off Barry Bank by running a youth-oriented “the current Board is a bunch of old people” type of campaign. If either of the candidates say “Jim Halasz has to go, Stephanie Jackson will go with him and I’ll rehire Robbie Love as soon as I’m sworn in”, that would get a lot of support. After saying all of that, I still realize that incumbents rarely lose in Halifax county local elections because the election districts have always strongly supported their own representatives. Although I would take pleasure in watching every incumbent get trounced in Halifax County, there’s only a 43% chance of one of them losing as of now. NEXT!
“The Halifax County Board of Supervisors stalemate will end in the next two weeks.” – You’re going to hate me for this one. I think I know something that most people don’t but I’m not going to talk about it yet. The last time I did investigative reporting on a government-changing operation in progress, I came out with the story and named names. That operation immediately collapsed once it was exposed and I seriously regret doing that in hindsight. The situation in Halifax County has gotten to such a level of stupidity that something needs to happen and I don’t care which team has a player defect to the other one, just as long as the stalemate is broken and regular government resumes. The citizens of Halifax County deserve a functional government and I’m not going to be the one who blows something up that can make that happen. Here’s what I will say… I have credible sources that tell me a defection will happen from one of the two warring factions. That defection would swing the balance of power to a 5-3 margin, and the stalemate would end. The pressure continues to build on both sides to do something to stop their insane dysfunctionality. I think that pressure has finally gotten into somebody’s head. If I’m wrong, I’ll take what blasting I will rightfully deserve for saying that there’s a 79% chance that the stalemate will be broken in the next two weeks. NEXT!
“Three or more women will run for Danville City Council in 2016.” – In 2014’s elections, we had Dawn Witter & Joyce Glaise running. Glaise’s supporters cost Dawn Witter the 5th and final spot because of their bullet voting strategy. Witter says she’s not running in 2016 and that’s a shame. I haven’t heard a word from Joyce Glaise after she lost and honestly don’t know if she’s back in Danville. Trina McLaughlin would be an excellent candidate and I surely would love to see Sheila Baynes make a run for it. Even if those two were to both run (and I don’t think both would), we’d need one more woman to run to fulfill this OddsMakers! proposition. I can’t remember ever having three female candidates run for council in one election. I’d love to see a big field of candidates next year, but I’m saying there’s only a 15% chance of it happening in 2016.
That’s it! We’re done! Huh? Crap. We’ve still got a fifth one to do. NEXT!
“Danville’s Festival In The Park will be disrupted by a thunderstorm sometime during its three-day run.” – Forecasting weather 7 days out is as close to blind guessing as you can get in the meteorological business. Southside’s outdoor festivals have an interesting tendency to magically attract thunderstorms no matter where they’re located on the map. Four years ago at the Halifax Cantaloupe Festival while working at the back gate, I personally watched a small thunderstorm form, intensify and oddly change its course so that it made sure to come over the Halifax County Fairgrounds. As of now, all of the 7 day weather models show only a slight chance of thunderstorms for May 15th through 17th. I don’t care. I’m saying there’s an 88% chance that a thunderstorm is going to glide over Ballou Park this coming weekend. It’s destiny, folks. Now I can say “That’s It. We’re done!”
Let’s take a look at the finished OddsMakers! board.
Where in the hell did you people find lime green chalk at? Oh well, there you have it. This edition of OddsMakers! is 100% over.
We’ve got more coming up on SouthsideCentral!
Here is my prediction. Both sides are looking at who has picked up candidate packets, who has successfully met the requirements to run on the ballot. Once the deadline for this passes, there will be a realization that one side is most likely in trouble come the November election and all of a sudden, a “cum by ya my lord” moment arises and someone defects or either decides that they need to compromise to save face.
“…lime green chalk at????”
Where you learn english?
“Where you learn english?”
Apparently from the same place that you did. 😀
It’s fairly striking to think about how few women actually have served on Danville City Council…..Charity, Glaise, Mayhew, Archie……anyone else?
That’s all I can think of as well.
We will have to see what we can do about at least on of your predictions 😉