OddsMakers! (7/27/15)

Hey, hey! Our writing crew has been busy making a new OddsMakers! board… so what are the chances? Let’s play.

If you haven’t seen one of our OddsMakers! articles before, shame on you. Heh. But here’s how it works… our writers put propositions on the chalkboard and we offer some analysis about them. We end up our discussion with the percentage chance of the proposition happening. You’ll figure it out. You’re also free to come up with your own analysis and percentage in the comment section.

Just remember, I’m always right. Except when I’m wrong. We don’t remember anything like that, of course. Heh. Let’s see what we have on the Big Chalkboard today.

At least they only gave me four things to talk about this time. Let’s get busy.

“Danville’s Confederate Monument will be vandalized in the next 30 days.” – Well, let’s get this one out of the way first. Reidsville’s Confederate Monument was moved to a cemetery after being in a traffic circle for a long time. Sometime on Friday somebody (or somebodies… that doesn’t look right, but you know what I mean) came and spray painted it with their own messages. Needless to say, those messages weren’t in support of the monument. There were people in Greenview Cemetery an hour before the vandalism was discovered but somehow it happened anyway. Danville’s monument is on the museum grounds, and that’s Main Street, folks. There’s always cars going up and down, so it would be hard for somebody to accomplish the level of Reidsville’s vandalism on Danville’s monument. It wouldn’t surprise me to find out that people will organize a “Monument Watch” program to make sure nothing happens to it. You can rest assured that Danville’s police officers are looking at the monument when they drive by. That being said, the monument is well within drive-by egg throwing range and there are a lot of stupid people in this world. I want to believe that we’re better than that, so I’m only giving this a 23% chance of happening. NEXT!

“At least one Danville City Council incumbent doesn’t run for reelection in 2016” – No. No. No. I don’t even want to think about 2016 elections when we’ve got to get past the November 2015 elections. Sigh. I hate our writers. All righty, I’m thinking this one is close to a lock because Buddy Rawley has been hinting about retirement from council. Also, Sherman Saunders has put in close to 20 years in the term. Between those two, I’m thinking that at least one will decide enough is enough. I’ll ask Fred Shanks about his plans at Monday’s Utility Commission and probably get a “No Comment” answer. Larry Campbell and Lee Vogler are definitely running even if they don’t know that themselves right now. You want a 100%, don’t you? I know you do. You’re not going to get one, though. You’ll have to settle for a 98% here. NEXT!

“The Danville Braves will make the 2015 Appy League playoffs.” – It’s hard to believe that the Appalachian League has hit the halfway point already. I will admit to you that I cheated and looked up the standings because I had no idea how the league was going. Danville was in last place in their division but was only 3.5 games out of first place. Two of the five teams in Danville’s division make the playoffs and there’s no super-powerful team that’s winning most of their games. Of course, the Appy League isn’t about winning games very much anyway. It’s about finding good players and moving them up the farm system as quickly as possible. But the proposition is about the playoff chances, so we know that 40% of the teams will get in. I’m almost tempted to go with the wimpy 50% number, but that’s highly frowned upon as being wishy-washy. Danville’s home crowds have a way of spurring the team on, so I’ll say it’s a 52% chance. Go ahead, boo me. NEXT!

“Danville & Duke Energy agree to a settlement by the end of the year.” – Oh yeah. I remember the coal ash spill. I remember the city hiring an specialized attorney team to work on getting a settlement with Duke Energy. I remember Davis Montgomery making his monthly visits to speak to city council. I remember getting the word that “a settlement was very close to happening”. I remember making a prediction that a settlement would happen soon. Face it, folks. If Duke Energy thought that they had any big-money judgment risk in play here, they’d be the ones pushing for a quick non-judicial settlement. That specialized attorney team doesn’t work cheaply and their billable hours meter keeps on ticking upwards. There’s going to be a settlement before the end of the year, but it’s not going to be a Cash Jackpot Showcase Bonanza. It’s going to be a late-Friday afternoon news dump type of thing and it’ll all be over. What? Oh yeah, I have to give a percentage chance of all of that coming true. How about 86%? That works for me.

And were done! Let’s take a look at the completed OddsMakers! board…

That’s more of that lime green chalk that you guys used last time, isn’t it? It’s growing on me. And now I get to say “This edition of OddsMakers! is 100% over!”

We’ve got more coming up on SouthsideCentral!