The door has been locked over at the SouthsideCentral writers’ room for the past two days, so that means that those evil people were putting something devious together. That means it’s OddsMakers time, where we take a look at the chances that certain things will happen. Remember that I’m always correct on my OddsMakers predictions (because I disregard the ones that I have blown badly).
I hate this as much as you do, folks. Hee hee.
And now, the moment that I dread. Ladies & Gentlemen, bring out that big OddsMakers chalkboard…
Well, that’s not as bad as I thought it could be. I think they had been drinking when they drew the lines, though. Sigh. Let’s get started!
“Danville will have no more murders in 2015” – Hmm. there’s two ways to look at this one. First: Although there have been some shooting incidents in the city in the last few weeks, they’ve been isolated and mostly in the “usual areas”. Overall, the Danville police department’s Street Crimes unit has been effective in reducing the incident rate and the other police officers continue to do their job well. The traditional summer heat and crime increase is now gone, so I’m feeling good about this prediction. Second: Although there have been some shooting incidents in the city, nobody’s been killed. I’m going to chalk that up to really lousy marksmanship and I expect to get yelled at for saying that. Heh. I like the chances of no more murders in 2015, so I’m going to say 87% here. NEXT!
“Halifax County Administrator Jim Halasz will be gone in the next 12 months” – The last time I counted, there were 11 people left in Halifax County that actually supported County Administrator Jim Halasz. Lucky for Halasz, four of them are currently on the Board of Supervisors. If John Cannon’s, Ted Bennett’s, Rick Harrell’s and Chris Lumsden’s money Joey Rogers defeats Barry Bank, that eliminates one of Halasz’s biggest problems. But then Jeaneen Abbott has a good chance at throwing J.T. Davis off the board just like Davis throws pencils. That would be another vote for Halasz at Tribal Council. Then we’ve got Dennis Witt & Garland Ricketts and I can’t get a read on them at all yet. Ah hell, who knows. I think Halasz feels the heat and is looking to get out before he gets sent packing. Something is going to happen, and there’s a 93% chance that the words “County Administrator Jim Halasz” won’t be said this time next year. NEXT!
“A Pro Flag Issue candidate will be elected to Danville City Council in 2016” – One big problem with getting a pro flag issue candidate to win in May 2016’s Danville City Council elections is going to be finding somebody who’s not a one-trick pony solely about that issue. That type of winning candidate has to appeal to all voting blocs and it’s going to take a highly polished professional person to do that. If somebody campaigns on “THEY TOOK OUR FLAG” and says nothing else about the serious issues that Danville has, they’re dead on arrival at the voting booth. One other big problem is that a lot of the support for a pro flag candidate would come from non-city residents who can’t cast a vote in the election. I’ve seen the Facebook page of one “declared candidate” and the writings of this person are um… horrible. Yes, voters will notice that. Voters will judge you for that. Right now, I don’t see a pro flag candidate getting any traction in the two main voting blocs of Danville… the black vote and the old people vote. And let’s be real, a pro flag candidate will get no black vote support. I’m being generous here and giving this a 9% chance of happening. NEXT!
“The new Danville City Manager will have no previous ties to Danville” – Joe King is theoretically gone, with Deputy City Manager Ken Larking taking over most of King’s duties. I fully expect Larking to get the field promotion to Interim City Manager as soon as King’s retirement is official. I like Ken Larking. He has done an excellent job and he’s qualified to be the next City Manager. He’d be in a position to stay in Danville for a long time if he got the job. There’s another former Deputy City Manager who isn’t very far away now, and that’s Greensboro Assistant City Manager David Parrish. He’s also just as qualified to take over the Danville job if he wants it. There’s going to be an extensive job search and City Council is going to take their time in the process. They did the same thing when replacing the late Lyle Lacy and Joe King got that job. If Larking or Parrish want the job, they have to be considered at the top-level of candidates simply because of their Danville experience. Danville wouldn’t go wrong with either of those guys. I’ll make a few heads explode by saying that Jerry Gwaltney has extensive Danville city manager experience, too. Heh. I’m going to say that the chances of somebody with Danville ties getting the city manager job is only 38%.
That’s it! We’re done! Let’s look at the finished OddsMakers board…
Purple chalk? Purple? I guess it does catch your eyes. The comment section is open for you to call me an idiot for my predictions. But now, I get to say my favorite line…
This edition of OddsMakers is 100% over!
Danville is good for about 4 murders a year when the fortunes are good and people are either missing or behaving. That would put the city due for one in the last three months of the year just in terms of the sheer ratio. The only wild card is that murders are often streaky. I’d put the chances of no more murders until 2016 at more like 20%.
Your remark about city council candidates needing polish made me laugh. I would remind you there are at least two members of council who currently who do not know the difference between the words “ask” and “axe”. Now mind you both are said to be college graduates, yet, they seemingly never spent a minute in English class. Whenever I hear them say they “axed the city manager to get more information”. I can only cringe. I fail to see any polish on those guys.
If we’re talking about cringe-worthy moments, we definitely have them at City Council meetings. But I’m referring to political polish. That’s saying the right things, always smiling, and overall decorum.
Compare and contrast that with the latest message on the “Erik Nicklow for City Council” Facebook page.
Remarks like that (content and grammar) just aren’t going to impress the Forest Hills & Windsor Heights voters. After statements like that, this guy will be lucky to get out of single digit vote count at the Green St. precinct. I’m not sure if that guy has anybody advising him right now, but he needs to already be in damage control mode after that.
Green Street huh? I don’t know Mr Nicklow, but I agree he seems not to be polished, and his grammar needs work, but that doe not change the fact current members of council say “axe” when they mean “ask”. Sure wish Mrs Archie were still around. She would correct those zeros when they said ” I axed a question”.
Yep. For example in 2014: Joyce Glaise – 80, Alonzo Jones – 79, Thomas Motley – 62, James Buckner – 22. Or how about Gibson? 2014: Joyce Glaise – 62, Alonzo Jones – 61, Thomas Motley – 46, James Buckner – 5.
Those kinds of voting results.