Robert Hurt decided not to run for a fourth term in the 5th District US House of Representatives, so it’s now Silly Season to see who’ll be his Republican nominee replacement in November 2016’s election. We’ve got a list of 9 Republicans (or at least likely Republicans) who have either declared their candidacy for the office or have been mentioned as possible candidates. Let’s do a Food Chain to see where the group shakes out.
We start off the Food Chain with the list of declared & mentioned possible Republican candidates. We’ve mixed them up using Random.org and here’s what came out.
- Jeff Burton
- Jill Vogel
- Jerry Boykin
- Jim McKelvey
- Mike McPadden
- Tom Garrett
- Bill Stanley
- Charlie Hurt
- Clarke Hogan
If some of these names seem unfamiliar to you, you’re not alone. We’ll identify them as we put them on the Food Chain board. Let’s get started!
- First on the list is Jeff Burton. He’s the former NASCAR driver from South Boston. The last time I checked, he was living near the Charlotte area. Ward Burton, Jeff’s brother, would be a more viable candidate than Jeff Burton because he’s still got ties to the 5th District with his business & philanthropy endeavors. But Jeff Burton was the brother that’s been mentioned as a possible candidate so we deal with that. The “When is the last time he did anything in the 5th District?” question will be a big one and I can’t think of an answer to that. Burton’s first, so we’ll plop him on the board.
Burton
- Next, we have Jill Vogel. She’s a state senator from the Winchester area with almost zero recognition in Southside. If you win Southside, you win the 5th District race. Vogel’s young (46) and a rising star in the Republican state ranks. She’d have the potential to do good in the race, but her lack of ties to Southside would make that a tough battle because this area doesn’t have a thing in common with Vogel’s strong Fauquier & Culpeper area. Her political experience makes her more electable than Jeff Burton though, and she goes ahead of him on the chain.
Vogel > Burton
- Jerry Boykin is a former US Army 3-star general and is now the executive vice president of the Family Research Council. His 3-star general record will get some looks but if he campaigns on social issues, he’ll be tuned out rather quickly. He’s got zero name recognition in Southside but the religious aspect to his campaign would get some donors. Boykin’s prone to gaffes, too. Jeff Burton’s racing reputation would be more charisma inducing than Boykin’s “Who?” current status. It’s the end of the Food Chain for Boykin until Burton’s rumored campaign goes into the Turn 3 wall.
Vogel > Burton > Boykin
- Jim McKelvey is a real estate baron from the Smith Mountain Lake area and ran against Robert Hurt in the 2010 5th District Republican primary. McKelvey also lost a state House of Delegates primary in 2013. McKelvey was the Donald Trump of the 2010 primary, spending his own money and trying to Make America Great Again. He got steamrolled by Robert Hurt, said he wouldn’t support Hurt in the general election, then was never heard from again. Unsurprisingly, McKelvey is currently working on Donald Trump’s presidential campaign. McKelvey’s unlimited source of money puts him at the top of this Food Chain for now, but that won’t last for long.
McKelvey > Vogel > Burton > Boykin
- Mike McPadden also ran against Robert Hurt in the 2010 Republican primary. He’s an airline pilot from the Charlottesville area and he made a very good impression with a lot of people during that primary run. I met him, talked with him and was immediately impressed. He never got back into the political arena but he just weighed in on a state-related issue. McPadden would have a hard time jumping back into politics after a long absence, but he would add a lot to the race and be an electable candidate. Because of McKelvey’s money bags, I’ll plunk him in the Food Chain after Jim.
McKelvey > McPadden > Vogel > Burton > Boykin
- Tom Garrett is a state senator from Buckingham County and he’s the grassroots/Tea Party darling. A few months ago, he tried to pull a political power play and strip Senate Majority Leader Tommy Norment of some of his power. Norment brushed that off and gave in just a little bit, splitting chairmanship of the Appropriations Committee. In other words, Garrett just pissed off The Establishment. Garrett’s got a good degree of support so far because he was the first candidate to declare, about 14 seconds after Hurt made his announcement. Garrett gets a FastForward to the top of the Food Chain over everybody else… for now.
Garrett > McKelvey > McPadden > Vogel > Burton > Boykin
- Bill Stanley is the state senator from the Smith Mountain Lake area and he’s got a lot of things going for him IF he wants to run for Robert Hurt’s seat. He’s got power. He’s got money. He’s got a political machine that will flatten any other candidate like Wile E. Coyote vs. anything from the Acme Corporation. Stanley is the current Majority Whip in the state senate and he makes things happen. He’s got the clout to make as much political money fall out of the sky as he needs. Stanley was rumored to be looking at a 2017 Attorney General run, but Rob Bell is already heading to that nomination. Stanley can sidestep that issue by going to Washington. I’m putting superglue on Bill Stanley at the top of this Food Chain.
Stanley > Garrett > McKelvey > McPadden > Vogel > Burton > Boykin
- Charlie Hurt is Robert ‘s brother and he’s an amazing columnist and pundit. He knows how Congress works (or doesn’t work) just as much as Robert Hurt does, and that’s a good enough reason to believe that he’d never give up his job for Congress. He’s got the Hurt name (and of course he’s got the Hurt looks). Charlie Hurt would be a fun entry into the race, just to confuse voters. I’m obligated to put him on the Food Chain and he does have more name recognition than Jill Vogel, so…
Stanley > Garrett > McKelvey > McPadden > Hurt > Vogel > Burton > Boykin
- You remember Clarke Hogan as the House of Delegates member from Keysville(?) that took Ted Bennett’s place when Bennett was retired under the threat of having Halifax County split up six ways in redistricting? You know, the guy who was elected to four terms and moved in quickly in the House ranks? The guy who mysteriously decided not to run for a 5th term citing family issues? The guy who’s never been politically heard from again since 2010? Yeah, I didn’t think you remembered him. He’s got political experience than the last two on the Food Chain, so I’ll stick him there.
Stanley > Garrett > McKelvey > McPadden > Hurt > Vogel > Hogan > Burton > Boykin
That’s it! Let’s take a look at where SouthsideCentral thinks that these nine declared and rumored Republican candidates shake out on the Food Chain board.
- Bill Stanley
- Tom Garrett
- Jim McKelvey
- Mike McPadden
- Charlie Hurt
- Jill Vogel
- Clarke Hogan
- Jeff Burton
- Jerry Boykin
There it is! A real man’s board! (If you don’t get that reference, I can’t help you)
The only thing that can screw up this Food Chain is if the 5th District Republicans choose a convention over a primary, and even then I believe that Bill Stanley’s machine would blow a convention away. So, SouthsideCentral believes that the Republican nomination to replace Robert Hurt is Bill Stanley’s if he wants it.
I think Bill Stanley wants it. 😀
Good job Bruce !
Keep us updated on the candidates.
NO! You’re supposed to yell at me and tell me how wrong I am!
Seriously, thanks for the kind words!
Isn’t the big elephant in the room the possibility that the Supreme Court moves quickly on the redistricting case and the maps change?
I saw Senator Stanley at the Court of Appeals earlier in the month. He impressed me with his considerable skill. I tend to think he is looking for a way to make a bigger impact. I guess time will tell.
I am sure there will be more !
A few thoughts: Geography/Method of Nomination/Ideology
Method of Nomination is most important: Convention v. primary. A primary is much more likely to be determined by money/name recognition. As much as I agree with you about Jeff Burton, I’m sure he starts with the highest name ID and could raise a boatload of money. Those factors would be enormous in an 8 or 9 person primary. Also, a convention requires someone to actually get a majority of delegates before he or she is nominated. That’s a completely different calculus. A convention favors a hard core conservative.
Geography: If Vogel is the only candidate from the northern end of the district, I’m not so certain Southside will determine the nomination if there really are 8 or 9 candidates. The Albemarle to Fauquier corridor has plenty of votes. If she’s dominant in that area while the other 7 or 8 are fighting for everyone else, I could see geography playing a role.
Ideology: Same point. Vogel is a conservative, but she’s a little more to the center than the others on your list (though none of us really know how conservative Burton is). Being the only “center right” candidate versus 7 or 8 “solid conservatives” gives her an opening to win the nomination (if it’s a primary).
Questions to you: Will you be doing a breakdown of the Democrats? What about this rumor that Todd Haymore may run? Any truth to that?
well i might just have to run Bruce it time we had someone there for working the everyday person . We need to someone who will listern to needs we have here in the area. Its time we took our state back . To have good jobs good school for our kids . The next leaders of state great colleges . We should be getting more for our tax dollars. People to need wake up before we becpme a third world state and country. Dont u want someone that listern to u and try make the state better ? Just a thought .
It will definitely be interesting to see how this plays out. I’m always more keen on having someone from the southside represent the 5th. Any chance that Marshall tosses his hat into the ring?
There was another person interested from Fauquier- but dropped out already
[…] Rosso, and Trump Supporter/Bedford County Businessman Jim Mckelvey. Additional names have been floated on the Republican side. According to Andrew Cain at The Richmond Times-Dispatch, Albermarle Supervisor Jane Dittmar and […]