An OddsMakers on one specific topic? With all four options that are the only possibilities that could happen? With content that will make some people uncomfortable and probably upset? What are the chances? 100%, baby. Let’s play.
Adam Tomer is going to resign from Danville City Council on July 1st. That means that the new version of council will have to appoint somebody on an interim basis until the next General Election, which will be in November.
So what’s going to happen? Let’s do A Very Special Edition of OddsMakers, with appropriate deference to the original PTI version).
Bring on the Big Board!
Well, that pretty covers all of the options. Technically, if council doesn’t do their job by August 15th, the courts can step in. But that’s not going to happen. Let’s get the game started…
- “Danville City Council will select Fred Shanks for the vacant seat until the election” – Great. The first one is going to be the most controversial one. Oh well, here we go. I like Fred Shanks. He got my highest endorsement in the recent election. He’s got a rabid fan club. But Fred Shanks sits on the fringe of council a lot. He believes in his causes and he’ll do what it takes to advance his agenda. Unfortunately for him, Danville City Council has always wanted to provide a unified front to the public with the goal of always having 9-0 votes. Fred doesn’t play that game when he wants to be tough (and also to impress his fan club base). Most of Fred’s support comes from that base, and a sizable part of that base can’t even vote in Danville elections. After the confederate flag and second amendment sanctuary issues, Fred’s on the outside when it comes to council teamwork. He’ll get Madison Whittle’s vote, but he won’t get the four more that would be needed. Fred Shanks deserves to be on council with his experience. But it won’t happen via the appointment process. Some people ain’t gonna like this, but put a 0% on the board. NEXT!
- “Danville City Council will select Sheila Baynes for the vacant seat until the election” – Like I said in the endorsements article, Sheila’s well qualified to be on council. Sheila’s also been the victim of bad election things that have been mostly out of her control. If Fred’s out of the game (and he is), the new version of council would have to go further down the voter’s depth chart to pick the 7th place finisher. It’s not outside of the realm of possibility, because Sheila’s strong in community action and knows her stuff. She’s also liked by enough members to have the possibility of getting the five votes needed. But incumbency, even temporary incumbency, is at least a slight advantage in a general election and does council want to even approach that topic? I’m hesitant on that. Like Fred, Sheila would do a great job even on an interim basis. I’d be perfectly happy with her being selected. Unfortunately, her window of opportunity is closing due to yet again something not being her fault. Let’s put a possible, yet difficult number of 14% on the board. NEXT!
- “Danville City Council will select Thomas Motley or Gordon Lyles for the vacant seat until the election” – No. No chance. No chance in hell. The big SQUADOOSH! 0%. NEXT!
- “Danville City Council will select somebody else for the vacant seat until the election” – So you’ve got a field of candidates who just lost an election a month or so ago for a four year term. Now you’ve got a five month term to hand out that comes with a slight election advantage if whoever is picked decides to run for Adam’s two remaining years. Do you just punt this ball down the field until the voters come back to the booths? Do you get rid of somebody that’s not well-liked? Do you dump the person who’s a strong community volunteer? Do you not give any credibility to longshot fringe candidates? Do you find a safe placeholder that just “does no harm” until the general election? Do you make sure they’re not the Old White Man stereotype? I think Council will do all of those things by picking somebody not on “the list”. I don’t like playing it safe on 4th and 2, but I’m strongly leaning to this being the case for this short-term situation. There’s 86 percentage points left out of the original 100. Put that 86% up on the board.
That’s it! We’re done. Let’s take a look at the final OddsMakers Big Board…
What the heck? A weird font and pukey looking colors? But hey, it works. One final prediction. This Very Special Edition of SouthsideCentral OddsMakers is 100% over!
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